2014 will be a year that builds on the momentum of mobile, cloud, the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Internet of Everything (IoE). How can your organization realize value from today’s new model for IT?
Here’s my take on the trends we will see over the next twelve months:
Increasing urgency to manage our zettabyte-driven world.
The need for hybrid cloud adoption.
A revolution in software and new IoE platforms.
The rise in thinking about security holistically.
The Internet of Me finally arrives: real personalized, mobile, cloud-based experiences.
The Internet of Everything is happening now.
If you think technology has infiltrated your life, just wait. You can feel the potential for monumental change as we begin to interconnect the physical and virtual worlds.
In my travels, I am fortunate to see new and interesting innovations, emerging technologies and trends. Of course, the growth of mobile and cloud technologies continues to shape our work and lives. 2014 will be a year that builds on the momentum of these trends, along with IoT, with more connected people, processes data and things than ever before. Here’s my take on the most significant things we’ll see in 2014.
1. Increasing urgency to manage our zettabyte-driven world.
The proliferation of mobile devices, streaming video and explosion of applications has meant that global IP traffic has exploded more than 4x in the past 5 years. IP traffic will again triple over the next 5 years. In 2013, we generated a momentous 1.2 zettabytes of new information and 70 billion apps were downloaded. Wireless traffic will exceed wired traffic and video-on-demand traffic will nearly triple in three years.
Are you a security professional or IT professional just resolving the security issues with BYOD (bring-your-own-device)? Watch out, BYOD was a precursor or warm up exercise to the tsunami just hitting your shores now.
The SANS Institute just completed a survey on the security viewpoints on IoT, predominantly with security and IT professionals.
78% of respondents were unsure of the capabilities for basic visibility and management of Things they will need to secure or lack the capability to secure them.
It seems that, like BYOD, IoT is driven with minimal IT consultation. And it happens with security as an afterthought, with 46% who do not have a policy to drive the visibility and management of IoT devices.
The top security controls used today for securing IoT were 68% authentication/authorization, 65% system monitoring, and 49% segmentation. That translates into Cisco Secure Access solutions that offer superior visibility, robust intelligent platform of critical context, and highly effective unified secure access control. More importantly, this will also help the 74% that rely on manual processes for discovery and inventory of connected device (from previous SANS research).
Over half (67%) are using SIEM (security information and event management) to monitor and collect data to secure IoT. Cisco ISE (Identity Services Engine) integrates with SIEM to bring together a network-wide view of security events supplemented with relevant identity and device context. This provides security analysts the context they need to quickly assess the significance of security events. More details on the ISE and SIEM integration may be found in this new white paper: Cisco ISE Plus SIEM and Threat Defense: Strengthen Security with Context
The research rightfully points out that, of the many categories of Things, the newest category of single-purpose devices typically connected by wireless (and more likely embedded) software will be the most problematic for security. Due to this difficulty, the SANS community (61%) would like the Thing manufacturers to take more responsibility for providing security. While this is a reasonable request, the question is whether they have the expertise to do this when their focus is on the exciting new IoT market opportunities. Weigh in and tell us your outlook on securing this next wave of Things connecting to your network!
We live in a time of tremendous and challenging technological disruptions. Yet it is also a time when the opportunities for business transformation are equally vast and impactful. This is particularly true for the retail industry.
The wave of change, which Cisco calls the Internet of Everything (IoE), is fast-moving, and retailers will need to adapt quickly or be left behind. After all, this explosion in connectivity — from 10 billion things today to 50 billion in 2020 — will demand a new paradigm: the IoE-Ready Retailer. And it will enable vast improvements in customer experience, employee productivity, and supply-chain efficiency, while allowing retailers to know their customers like never before.
Cisco’s research into this new dimension in connectivity among people, process, data, and things — and the overall Value at Stake over the next 10 years —presents some mind-boggling numbers: $14.4 trillion for the private sector overall and another $4.6 trillion for public sector organizations.
As per Cisco’s estimate, the retail industry will account for 11 percent of the total IoE private sector Value at Stake over the next 10 years — second only to the manufacturing industry. Cisco believes that success for retailers will hinge particularly on their ability to apply technology to improve the “people” and “process” aspects of their businesses, and to be able to offer unique, new connected experiences to the average shopper.
Cisco’s new research, which explores how the average consumer is thinking and adopting these connected experiences, uncovers some startling facts. Consumers now research, compare, and purchase products with one-click ease. The population of ever-connected, digital natives is increasing at unprecedented rates (60%+ year over year). This affords sellers with a wealth of real-time data insights that can help them stock the right products and present them in novel ways.
My 2014 predictions are finally complete. If Open Source equals collaboration or credibility, 2013 has been nothing short of spectacular. As an eternal optimist, I believe 2014 will be even better:
Big data’s biggest play will be in meatspace, not cyberspace. There is just so much data we produce and give away, great opportunity for analytics in the real world.
Privacy and security will become ever more important, particularly using Open Source, not closed. Paradoxically, this is actually good news as Open Source shows us again, transparency wins and just as we see in biological systems, the most robust mechanisms do so with fewer secrets than we think.
The rise of “fog” computing as a consequence of the Internet of Things (IoT) will unfortunately be driven by fashion for now (wearable computers), it will make us think again what have we done to give up our data and start reading #1 and #2 above with a different and more open mind. Again!
Virtualization will enter the biggest year yet in networking. Just like the hypervisor rode Moore’s Law in server virtualization and found a neat application in #2 above, a different breed of projects like OpenDaylight will emerge. But the drama is a bit more challenging because the network scales very differently than CPU and memory, it is a much more challenging problem. Thus, networking vendors embracing Open Source may fare well.
Those that didn’t quite “get” Open Source as the ultimate development model will re-discover it as Inner Source (ACM, April 1999), as the only long-term viable development model. Or so they think, as the glamor of new-style Open Source projects (OpenStack, OpenDaylight, AllSeen) with big budgets, big marketing, big drama, may in fact be too seductive. Only those that truly understand the two key things that make an Open Source project successful will endure.
AI recently morphed will make a comeback, not just robotics, but something different AI did not anticipate a generation ago, something one calls cognitive computing, perhaps indeed the third era in computing! The story of Watson going beyond obliterating Jeopardy contestants, looking to open up and find commercial applications, is a truly remarkable thing to observe in our lifespan. This may in fact be a much more noble use of big data analytics (and other key Open Source projects) than #1 above. But can it exist without it?
Finally, Gen Z developers discover Open Source and embrace it just like their Millennials (Gen Y) predecessors. The level of sophistication and interaction rises and projects ranging from Bitcoin to qCraft become intriguing, presenting a different kind of challenge. More importantly, the previous generation can now begin to relax knowing the gap is closing, the ultimate development model is in good hands, and can begin to give back more than ever before. Ah, the beauty of Open Source…