This is part 1 of a 3-part blog series on a Cisco futurist’s perspectives on some buzzy terms and technology trends.
At Cisco, I’m responsible for looking at the future of human-machine interaction. The future of human-machine interaction spans an exploration into all kinds of futures — from the future of trust and higher education to the future of quantum internet and IoT. And when looking at, and projecting out likely futures, there is no lack of differing perspectives, conflicting information, and challenges to the groupthink that is driving our companies and cultures in certain directions.
I recently listened to the Money in the Metaverse episode of Azeem Azhar’s Exponential View podcast, which addresses blockchain, cryptocurrency, and the Metaverse. The podcast’s two speakers, Azhar and Citi’s Rohit Ghose, discussed a couple of perspectives that I’ve also expressed and advocated for within my circle – opinions that have been considered unpopular ones.
In this series, I’d like to share some of my own perspectives and opinions on Web3, the Metaverse, and the future of human-machine interaction. Perhaps together we can challenge and grow and ultimately all end up better prepared for the Internet that will actually develop in the next decade.
“The only weakness in holding an unpopular opinion
is the unwillingness to change if new information invalidates it.”
I’m unintimidated in holding well-informed but counter-cultural opinions about certain things concerning the future of human-machine interaction. About the Metaverse. About Web3 and NFTs. About the Future of the Internet (and how we will interact with it). After all, the only weakness in holding an unpopular opinion is the unwillingness to change if new information invalidates it. I’m always willing to change my perspective with new information.
Defining terms for the future of human-machine interactions
A natural part of my role and responsibility has revolved around the Metaverse, which we’ve been actively engaged in exploring and building the infrastructure for over the past several years. For many, the Metaverse is a mysterious concept that brings to mind virtual reality gaming and blocky Roblox avatars. Some identify Second Life as the original Metaverse, with a robust GDP worth a shocking $500MM.
It makes sense for me to share a few definitions here to set the stage for the next installments in this blog series on human-machine interactions in the future.
What is the Metaverse?
Definitions of the Metaverse vary, but these are some of my favorite interpretations:
“The metaverse is the moment in time where our digital life is worth more to us than our physical life.”
— Shaan Puri, former Twitch Manager
“The ‘Metaverse Continuum…’ is a spectrum of digitally enhanced worlds, realities, andbusiness models poised to revolutionize life and enterprise in the next decade.”
— Accenture
“First coined in Neal Stephenson’s 1992 Sci-Fi novel Snowcrash, I see the Metaverse as the gradual convergence of the digital world with the physical world.
A world where we no longer notice a distinction between our digital avatars and our physical selves. A world where smart lenses and BCI devices enable us to be surrounded by information – interactive information for work, entertainment, education, and more. This is the next iteration of the internet.
And as dystopian it may sound, this is the next iteration of life.”
— Ryan Gill, Cofounder & CEO of Crucible
“Metaverse” isn’t the only term cited when discussing this new paradigm. Omniverse and Multiverse are others bandied about, and those concepts touch on a really critical factor in defining the embodied internet. And there is also some debate about how the Metaverse will interact with the concept of Web3.
What is Web3?
Since Web3 is another buzzy term, I’ll also share my definition of Web3, which some people see as the next version of the Internet. However, a Web3 experience is different than our web experience today (Web2) in a few ways:
How Web3 differs from Web2, today’s web experience:
- Instead of living on centralized servers, Web3 is hosted on a decentralized platform, outside of the control of large tech companies, which makes it a more neutral, democratic place.
- Instead of content being created largely by companies, Web3 is creator-driven and collaborative, leveraging cryptocurrency as payment for creations and assets designed by anyone creative, sometimes minted as NFTs.
- Instead of a place where user data can be collected by Big Tech, Web3 is a place where data is publicly verifiable, and users can see what happens with their personal data through the transparent ledgers innate on the blockchain, controlling and protecting personal data from being unethically used or abused.
- Web3 is secure, allowing people to log in using blockchain-based authentication (such as “SIWE” & “EIP-4361”) and blockchain-based identity (such as “ENS”) instead of using human-generated passwords, or centralized password managers, which can be stolen from hacked sites.
The Web3 concept has been lauded by cryptocurrency investors, innovators, startups, and venture capitalists who are investing heavily in decentralization. Now that we’ve defined the Metaverse and Web3, we can move on to six unpopular opinions I’m going to share. Stay tuned for the next blog in this series!
Do you agree or disagree with my definitions? How would you describe the Metaverse and Web3? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!
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Excelente aporte, es cierto que ahora la inteligencia artificial es imprescindible en todo ámbito.
¡Y solo está creciendo!
I mostly agree with the definitions. I will say these next few years should shape up to be very interesting!
Not to date myself, but I was around when the Net was @ its birth and Netscape along with Yahoo had large leaps on everyone else in the beginning. I’ve seen giants like AOL and GoDaddy reduced to rubble. With Web3, who knows what or whom will emerge if it’s truly a decentralized platform. Let the new age begin!!!
I too recall those days before the .com bubble burst! I expect a rocky next few years, eventually smoothing out into a more seamless Web2+Web3 experience in the next decade.
Web3 is a technological dead-end that venture capital and shady businesses/individuals use to bamboozle non-technological folk into parting with money. Take a look at the ‘web3 is going great website‘ to see how absolute the failure in the space currently is. I need Cisco to stay well away from this one! History isn’t going to look kind on those involved.
Metaverse may have some redeeming features but it really is just VR+, or VR– if you look at the quality of some of the projects in the space. That said, to a lesser extent than web3 it still has a whiff of ‘grift’ about it. Please stay away Cisco! 😀
I totally appreciate your perspective, and I think you’re going to appreciate the next couple of “unpopular” opinions I have. What web3 and the Metaverse are today is different from what they’ll be tomorrow, and we cast forward, looking at potential outcomes to try and reverse engineer the future. That said: no matter whether the future of the internet is centralized or decentralized, embodied or experienced on a flat screen, Cisco will continue to deliver the infrastructure, bandwidth, and security that are so necessary to bring it to life.
Very good Perspective!!!
Thanks, Andres – very curious about your feedback on blog post #2 when it comes out!
Interesting topics to discuss. As someone who isn’t too familiar with either the Metaverse or Web3 concepts, I look forward to hearing your perspectives in the next part of this blog series.
I’m glad that you found it interesting. I had a LOT of conversations – learning from some people and also explaining this to others – before I felt like I could really nail down some of the things that I believed about the category.
Disagree, metaverse , VR usage compared to normal activities The future needs exciting Prospects. Gaming in itself is appreciated my most. This is becoming a cash grab chance or investment that is not worth it. Come on Cisco the journey and bettering the networks around us more fruitful.
I hear you, Jeremy. A cash grab indeed – a tremendous amount of venture capital is being poured into it, and the security threats are real. Gaming has been ground zero for immersive, but I’m fascinated to see where it extends into B2B, how, and how well it’s received. So far…nothing *super* impressive. But someday, I expect experiential vaporware to become more tangible, but I’m an optimist!
The companies that provide the tools for Metaverse may not want to let it be “free” on Web3. Do you think they will have no choice but to let the Meta run on whatever platform users want? Thanks for the article though looking forward to 2 and 3
Peter
I talk a bit about the economic models in future posts but yes – Web3 may be decentralized and democratized – but, as we say in Texas, it ain’t gonna be free. FTR – I believe that Meta’s immersive experiences will likely run on cloud, not blockchain – so I don’t even encapsulate them into my perspective on Web3.
Web3 is fascinating to me. I’m really looking forward to seeing how that plays out and what a decentralized internet will bring forth.
Agreed, Brad! It’s fun to think of what could be, and equally – if not more – important to think about what *should* be.
It is true that in these times artificial intelligence is essential in every area that surrounds us
100%. Web2 was based on Big Data. And now….we have event Bigger Data! And context! And Intent! All of these weave together into a fabric of insights that can drive a personalized web experience – but now, it’s going to be an immersive one.
Not sure if NFTs have such a bright future. I think they are overrated
I don’t even go into NFTs in this series, but I’ve been asked to speak about helping my colleagues understand NFTs and crypto and web3, from a personal investment perspective. My pitch: invest in the technologies that are foundational to NFTs….rather than going all Bored Ape. Based on a report I read, in 2021, 9 percent of wallets held 80 percent of the value of the NFT market. You can strike it rich, but it’s like gambling. Prepare to lose and you might be pleasantly surprised.
I think would be real game changer . AI/ML and VR with WEB3 can disrupt a lot . The Human to machine interaction would keep rising as more and more endpoints are connected to Internet .
Yes! It’s this beautiful WEB of interconnected devices! That’s the promise – but in my (unpopular) opinion – it doesn’t have to be Web3. More on that in the next installation.
Web3 concept is really amazing, great that CISCO is catching up
It’s been so rewarding to understand how we fit into the ecosystem. Frankly, we don’t even have a truly decentralized web today. But we are looking at what it will become and having great internal conversations…and debates. 🙂
Nice article. We shall see how it will evolve and what benefits it will bring in the end.
Thanks! I agree – and it will take years to fully realize the potential of a decentralized web, so hold on to your horses.
Very interesting article, certainly invokes a desire to delve more into this sphere.
I love learning about the space and forming my own opinions about it – and I hope you find the next installations equally interesting!
Great Blog Annie, that’s probably the best organised and most accessible explanation of what Web3 actually is that I’ve seen 🙂
Thank you, Scott! I needed to set the stage for the next 2 posts because as you know, it is so important to understand these super complex topics.
Interesting read. Fascinated to see how commerce shapes web3 along the way.
Absolutely! Decentralized Finance is so volatile right now – but the movement of digital and tokenized currency is unquestionably changing how we exchange value for value. I talk a bit about the creator economy in further installations – because artistry of many types is so critical in the Web3 evolution.
Great article! I’ve heard much about Web3, but I’ve never really put any effort in learning about what it is. I’m curious to see what your next posts in the series cover.
I hope that we get some good debate on it, honestly. Foundationally, Web3 is driven by a gap in trust. There has been a lot of content around that, but using that as a foundation to answer the question, “why distributed ledger?” or “Why Web3?” is one of the most valuable tools I’ve had to add context to the concept. Q: “Why distributed ledger?” A: “Because there is a gap in trust.” This is why so many supply chain companies have started to use Smart Contracts: they need to trust the origin and have immediate access to information in an environment where sourcing makes a difference. More to come…
Good perspective…
Thanks, Uvindhu – some of what you’ll see next diverges from other perspectives, but I’m not alone in holding divergent views!
Interesting, I try to learn..
Well, we are indeed the Cisco Learning team. 🙂
Unpopular or not… looking forward to the follow up articles. Seeing how the NFT issues have unfolded in the past year or two doesn’t give me anything nice to say about that “technology”. Too many seem to be willing to disregard security and privacy concerns just to push a new technology, and borderline scamming people for money.
Jonatan – you’re far from alone. NFTs have been so difficult to fathom. And in addition to that – blockchain generally has led to speculative people losing tremendous net worth, both from the volatility of the decentralized economy to the rampant thefts we’re seeing. Blockchains, unquestionably, have a security problem. My colleague Jaeson Schultz goes into that in his research, published earlier this year. https://blog.talosintelligence.com/2022/02/securing-web-3.0-metaverse-and-beyond.html
I am taking a wait and see approach. I have witnessed far to many giants fall who once were thought to be to big to fail.
Agreed – we need to sort through the buzz to get to the opportunity. I think you’ll appreciate some of the opinions I share in future posts.
Every change in IT improves our life in different ways
THAT is an opinion I’m going to have to chew on. There comes a point at which we wonder whether technology has improved our lives or threatened them. I think once we actually reach The Singularity, people might feel differently than they do today.
Highly interesting topic, thank you!
Thanks Steffen! I’m looking forward to the next installation – and I hope to see some interesting commentary.
The reality is changing, I’m pretty curious regarding this new “world”.
As am I, Carlos! Some of what is developing will remain – some will disappear. But no matter what, the Internet we know today will change.
Very big technological advancement and a lot of interesting scary buzzwords! I’m excited to learn more about it, very interesting future we have in IT.
ALL. THE. BUZZWORDS. And not everyone agrees on the same definition of them. It’s something I’ve been talking about for years, and yet it still feels like early days.
Web3 seems like a good idea, especially moving away from centralized servers and data that is consumed by gigantic tech companies. The Metaverse is digital hokum that the tech companies have been trying to foist on us for years. Heck, one of the companies changed it’s name so that it could be the focus of the “meta”verse. It’s a sad idea brought on my tech nerds that are afraid of one on one interaction in real life. Put down your internet connected goggles and go outside and get some exercise.
Larry – I am SO looking forward to your perspective on my next two posts – where I actually share some of my unpopular opinions. Also – I think you’ll like a few other things I’m working on. The Metaverse is incredibly buzzy and also misunderstood. So many people see the future as one that we’ll experience with VR goggles. I respectfully disagree with that perspective. But I do agree that we could all go outside and get some exercise!!
Excellent article! I like the perspective! Thank you
Thank you, Cristian!
For me this future provides optimized accountability of personally valued digital assets
Michael – spot on. I’m projecting that in 10 years, people will come to value and expect blockchain-based assets for the purpose of accountability and control – as much as privacy. That merits and entirely separate blog series though. 🙂
I kinda have “Ready Player One” in mind …
My response there is “yes, and…” Because VR will indisputably be part of our future – Accenture ships VR headsets to all new employees because they onboard them in a VR Metaverse – but other spatial and ambient technologies will be critical to weaving together the physical and digital worlds we have today. The embodied internet will be more organic, and more experiential, than we imagine.
I think the definitions for the Metaverse and Web3 are spot on for what’s being pitched to us these days.
That said, I’m pretty sure the future will be something different and more of a hybrid model. Some ideas from hot topics like Web3 and the Metaverse and will be blended with Web2 and other concepts. The transition will be evolutionary not a revolutionary.
I agree! I call this future Web 2+.
Great to learn about Cisco U. I’m on my certification journey with Cisco, and recommended the process to anyone considering it.
Fantastic, Alim!
Good to know about this
It’s definitely an organic, emerging topic that we’re learning more about every day.
Nice Article ! , thanks for sharing its very interesting
Thanks, Alejandro!
It is here
I agree…but it isn’t remotely as prolific as it will be in the coming decade.
there are adv and disadv ofcourse
I agree completely, but so much of that intellectual debate gets lost in the hype.
Very New to the Metaverse Theory – Looking forward to Part 2
Oh, it’s fascinating. Every day there is new information about the Metaverse, the applications of the technology, and the entities building it.
Web3 concept is really amazing, just not sure if it’s ready yet
“Ready” is such a subjective term right now in Decentralization-land. Some aspects are locked in pretty well – with Ethereum2 just having launched the merge, with 9,100 active nodes as of today running more sustainable transactions with far lower gas fees than ever before. Some, not so much – like how we’re seeing the cryptocurrency economy today as a volatile, spectulative investment rife with theft. Today is a snapshot, and as we look back at the evolution of the fourth industrial revolution, so we’ll see the advancements of these into the fifth industrial revolution will get far easier to use, understand, and – ultimately – trust.
Be more curious about what web4 is going to unfold. Cheers!
WEB4!! Oh, man – I’d love to hear your thoughts on that!
This is all very interesting. I wonder if you have any information on a time-line for Web3.
Gartner has some proprietary information about the emergence of Web3, but the timelines I’ve seen are mostly about how quickly the foundational Web3 technologies will emerge. Right now, interoperability is critical, as is security, and it’s still the Wild West. I believe that Web3 applications – distributed applications or dapps – are up and running effecively now….but most of them have a Web2 component still. For instance, some still integrate with cloud-based APIs. So the timeline really depends on your definition of a Web3 world. So, I’d say Web 2+ (Web3 with Web2 components) is already here, and the tremendous amount of venture capital pouring into the blockchain is accelerating Web3 development…but at the rate of development, I imagine it will be 5+ years before we see critical mass of a completely distributed-ledger-reliant, secure, trustworthy decentralized web environment. And once we see it – people will have to adopt it, so pregnancy of users will take longer.
I’m coming back to this. After more thought, it’ll be longer than that. Interoperability is the biggest hurdle and Gartner is expecting interoperability to reach maturation around 2030, so pencil in 10 years.
Very good Perspective!!!
Thank you, Oyewole!
This is the future, like it or not!
That’s how I feel! As Generation Z – the first truly digital-native generation – ages over the next decade and becomes a larger part of the workforce and economy, I expect the increased comfort level with these concepts will drive more urgency and investment. But that’s *tomorrow* and not *today*.
Looking forward to seeing how it all evolves
Same, Steven!
I think Web3 still a concept.
I’ve called it that. I call it a “concept” or an “ideology” sometimes. I talk about that a bit in my next couple of blogs – questioning decentralization as a future we’ll experience.
Wow! Great blogs! Future is with AI!
It’s all around us! And as we build more spatial, digital components, whether on the blockchain or off, we will find ourselves with obscene amounts of data. And then, someday, we’ll just employ quantum machine learning to squeeze the insights out of it, store it all on memory crystals, and then hop on our flying chair like in Wall-E as we drink the dinner we bought recommended by DNA analysis.
Excellent article! I like the perspective! Thank you!!!
Thanks, Jack! Blog #2 should drop next week so stay tuned!
I was about to ask and you already answered. Pt2, next week, looking forward.
Thanks for sharing.
We’re excited about the space and eager to see it develop!
Nice, Never knew where the term Metaverse originated from.
The actual term was coined in a science fiction novel – Snow Crash – in 1992. Science Fiction has had an amazing ability to help us see that future, and it’s super cool when author and artist dreams start to come to life. Life imitates art. 🙂
thanks for the article and read. Interesting topic and will be interested to see where things head. Haven’t heard of web3 until this article…..
Thanks for reading, Philip! Web3 as it is known today has also historically been referred to as the semantic web or the decentralized web, and I learned about it a few years ago from a colleague. It’s effectively how blockchain will be used to reinvent how people access internet information, connect socially, and do commerce online in the future. ALL the buzzy terms. 🙂
Very good perspective.
Thanks, Rune!
Great article about IA and the future risks!
Thank you! Part 2 is out now: https://blogs.cisco.com/learning/human-machine-interactions-of-the-future-unpopular-opinions-part-2
Good post
great post
Thanks, Brennan!
Cracking article, WEB3.0 will be the next internet revolution.
For sure! It’s already emerging as a promising, albeit somewhat intimidating, aspect of the future internet we’ve been building for decades.
Is decentralized network secure? Probably yes, until someone will be controling 51% of nodes/hashing power/statements (PoS).
THAT is the question. There are decentralized ledgers that are fairly common for Enterprise use cases – like Hyperledger and, more recently, Hedera. Those are considered more “secure” due to their permissioned, governed nature. They’re decentralized – but they still offer a modicum of control. And to some, they are completely contrary to the entire point of Web3 – which was created to decentralize and democratize the web. I go into centralized control in my next blog post, due to drop the week of October 14th, but to answer your question: my colleague Jaeson Schultz goes into detail on his perspective about how we can secure the Metaverse, Web3, and more. https://blog.talosintelligence.com/2022/02/securing-web-3.0-metaverse-and-beyond.html
Nice Blog Post, thanks.
Thanks for sharing the information
Interesting topic
Nice blog, thank you
I’m always skeptical when I hear anyone refer to a decentralized platform, especially when the platform is supposed to be a destination such as a web property.
The resources which comprise that destination need to be hosted somewhere and there needs to be pathways to that hosting. All of that requires funding to build and support. The need for cost reduction in those expenses would push the platform owners to scalable providers, potentially giving those providers the capability to un-democratize access to the platform and the contents.
Same – thus my unpopular opinions in the next two installations! I often use the term “Web2+” for what I see as the future of the Internet. I’ll say though that Web3 is in its infancy, and with the tremendous amount of venture capital that has poured into blockchain companies (albeit slowing down this year due to the impending recession), I foresee more pure Web3 companies and applications developing. It will be interesting to watch, and I’ll remain skeptical myself. Interoperability, interoperability, interoperability.
Metaverse will further widen the gap between people in my opinion.
Muhamed – There are indeed risks inherent with the adoption of the Metaverse, and I cover some of those in a paper I’ll publish next month called “The Risk of Exclusion In The Metaverse.” Because you’re not wrong – the Metaverse that is being developed runs the risk of being an exclusionary echo chamber that fosters bias while encouraging silos of social connection to the few. We need inclusive innovation and thoughtful design choices to avoid that outcome – and I really believe that the more we talk about it, the more we bring that concern into the light and get it published – the higher the likelihood that we can change that future for the better.
Very interesting!!
Wow, very interesting.
Short and concise, thanks!
Thanks for sharing
Web3 is creator-driven and collaborative.
I hope it froozes this way for the meantime.
I completely agree with the definitions.
the definition of Shaan Puri is just scary
Nice post..
Decentralization, collaboration, and an ever-growing need for enhanced security are what will persist going forward. Good read and interesting points to reflect on.