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Likelihood or Probability – What’s in a Word?

It is always interesting how commonly understood terms turn into nuanced expressions in the hands of specialists -- whether they be lawyers, accountants, doctors -- or indeed data analysts and statisticians. One pair of expressions in this regard is likelihood and probability -- which may seem to hold similar meanings in common parlance, but hold distinctly separate purposes in the world of data analytics.

Probability is simply the probability of an outcome, given a set of parameters. 

Given a person’s

  • Salary
  • Credit History
  • Criminal Record
  • Length of Employment  and more

Q.What is the Probability of Default against a Loan?
A. Probably some number between 0 and 1 !

This is classical probability and what it is understood to be in common language as well.

Likelihood however flips the equation, and seeks to estimate the values of the parameters of the equation/formula/model, given a set of outcomes across several observations.

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Marketing Analytics adding heft to Digital Analytics

The worlds of Digital Analytics and Marketing Analytics have frequently led somewhat independent lives -- with the Digital Analyst spending time looking at digital channels (web/mobile/social), reading out metrics, understanding conversion rates, focused on conversion funnels, A/B and multi-variate testing and the like while the Marketing Analyst was more concerned with Survey Analysis, developing “What-If” simulators for product features and concerning themselves with ROI from campaigns.

There has been an inevitability in the growth in popularity of the digital medium even as more and more content was consumed through digital channels -- and quite naturally, the marketing and advertising dollars followed suit. This graphic from IAB captures this rapid growth:  Read More »

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AEM, Jive and an updated Cisco Mobile App!

It’s the New Year here at Cisco, at least from a fiscal perspective, and one of the most exciting projects we have completed this year within our Digital team is the updated version of the Cisco Mobile App!

The new Cisco App!

The new Cisco App!

If you haven’t already, you can download it through the iTunes Apps Store for iOS or Google Play for Android. The latest release of the App includes many upgrades including real-time Cisco news feeds, enhanced video capabilities and product updates.

As we march in to the New Year, we continue converging and standardizing our assortment of Digital tools. Specifically, we are very focused on Adobe AEM and Jive.

  • Adobe AEM – We continue expanding our use of Adobe AEM to manage our web properties like Cisco.com. The big news here is that we plan to start using AEM in a Cisco hosted hybrid cloud to also power our INTERNAL web properties.  As I alluded to in a blog post back in February, we are hoping to drive both content and process efficiencies from standardizing on a single platform for web in the the cloud.
  • Jive – Similar to AEM, we are already using Jive on many of our external communities and the new move is to use the same platform for our INTERNAL communities. Starting in September, we plan on using a Jive cloud service for internal Cisco communities. This will be on a limited basis to begin with, but we hope to expand the usage throughout the year.

I think there will be some interesting possibilities and benefits with integrating Jive Communities in to an AEM powered web experience. Social will become more and more integrated within the daily digital workflow on our web properties. Furthermore, by converging our platforms, we will put Customers, Partners and Employees in closer contact with each other.

Any large companies (10,000+ employees) that have either implemented both AEM and Jive or have implemented either one for both internal and external use interested in sharing best practices?  Let me know and let’s get together!

The Power of Hashtags

Log on to most social media platforms and you’ll likely see a bunch of # signs floating around. No, they do not designate a phone number; instead, they’re an easy and useful way to grow your products and brand in a way that consumers are familiar with. Not sure what they mean or how they work? Stick with me. I’ll explain what hashtags are, why they’re useful and how to use them in your marketing practice.

The Power of Hashtags

What are hashtags?

According to Twitter, “The # symbol, called a hashtag, is used to mark keywords or topics in a Tweet. It was created organically by Twitter users as a way to categorize messages.”

Now, they’ve expanded beyond Twitter to many other social sharing sites—namely Instagram, Facebook and Pinterest—as a way to group like items into one. You simply put a # with a single word or phrase (make sure not to use punctuation or spaces) in your post, and it automatically turns into a clickable link.

It’s common to use hashtags for a big event, promotion, or product launch. For example, say you’re going to one of Cisco’s largest events, Cisco Live! You document your days by sharing your pictures on Instagram and stay updated with regular tweets, but add in the #CiscoLive hashtag and boom – you’re suddenly synced up with others who are also talking about Cisco Live!  You instantly have a connection to others in the industry, thanks to this little symbol.

Why do hashtags matter?

  1. Networking. Using hashtags allows you to reach a new audience you might not have interacted with.
  2. Advertising. If people start hashtagging their photos or tweets with something related to your company or a campaign you’re running, their followers will also see this, possibly driving them to your site and, fingers crossed, becoming a new partner or customer.
  3. Building relationships. Click on a hashtag related to your product or industry and you’ll see not only what customers are interested in, but also what they’re saying. You can then start a conversation with these folks, leading to an introduction about your company or a solution to a problem they might be having.
  4. Relevance. By clicking on a hashtag, you’ll find tons of other tweets, images, and posts that are related. Try it: head to Twitter, search #CloudComputing and you’ll see hundreds of comments, articles, and photos related to the subject. It’s worthwhile to take some time to search for hashtags relevant to your company and industry to see what other products or information comes up.

There are a number of benefits to start adding that # sign to your posts. Does your company use them? Have you tried using hashtags in a marketing campaign? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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Sports + Social Media = Massive Opportunities

I was at the SEAT Conference in Miami last week, and people are still abuzz about the recent World Cup. Attendees of the conference see engagement with sports fans as a top priority, and they know that Cisco has the most open, tailored and successful solutions to make that possible in venues around the world. The data below from Facebook and Twitter shows just how voraciously fans engaged on social media with regards to the World Cup.

Facebook

 

Twitter

As the world continues to become more “social” than ever before, teams, venues, leagues, and companies are working more feverishly than ever to capture the massive opportunity these sports fans present in the digital world.

Every conversation I had during the SEAT Conference validated that Cisco’s investments in Sports & Entertainment have positioned us to aid our customers to capture these digital fans. Over the past few years we have solved the problem of reliable and efficient high-density Wi-Fi, and live video streaming with minimal delay, and that is why our solutions are in more than 225 venues, and 30 plus countries, and have impacted hundreds of millions of fans. And with a proven platform in place, we are working with our customers to convert these more connected and immersive experiences into deeper levels of insight and engagement that drive impact, both on a personal level with fans and on the business side with sponsors and other associated partners looking to generate a return on their investments.

While many are looking at capturing the opportunities of the here and now, this is only the beginning.  The rapid pace of technology innovation mandates preparing for the future and as we visualize a world where everything is connected (Internet of Everything – IoE). This video series shows how Cisco and the NBA are already deep into this process. Check out the “One Bounce” video here.

As big data fuels deeper levels of fan insights, the future experience will be richer, and ultimately feed the insatiable hunger for information that these fans have already shown. Being a sports fan will be better than ever before, and Cisco will be right in the middle of making that happen.

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