Earlier this week, I attended the UN’s Broadband Commission meeting in Ohrid, Macedonia, where we discussed initiatives to reach the Commission’s goals by 2015:

1) All countries have national broadband plans;

2) Broadband is affordable in developing countries so that entry-level broadband services cost less than 5% of average month income;

3) Broadband is adopted by 40% of households in developing countries; and that

4) Broadband penetration reaches 60% of the worldwide population and 50% in developing countries

To support this vision of an ever expanding Internet that people see as essential, Cisco sponsored the 83rd Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) meeting last week in Paris. At the IETF, more than 1,400 of the leading Internet engineers and technologists from around the world gathered to further develop the standards which provide the foundation for Internet services such as domain names, email, the Web, and instant messaging.

The IETF is nearing its 30^th year of developing standards that have contributed to an Internet that is now utilized by over two billion people, fostered by a governance model that is largely self-regulatory and multi-stakeholder.

The Internet has grown up and is now essential to the 21st century global economy and a key driver of social development. But current challenges remain, such as extending the Internet to under-served areas and people, especially through wireless technology, and addressing issues of trust.

To achieve the UN Broadband Commission’s goal, and to expand the use of the Internet to the next billion, and the four billion people after that, the IETF and the Internet’s multi-stakeholder technical community must continue to address challenges, getting ahead of issues before they become problems.

The tremendous rate of growth of the Internet has been fueled by conscious decisions along the way that provided a vibrant and open environment where innovation flourishes. The Internet was not an accident. The technical community, encompassing the IETF and others, plays a critical role in leading efforts to continue this rapid expansion of the benefits of connectivity, while ensuring the future and freedom of the Internet. And we are committed to the IETF as one of the key forums where Internet standards are developed and core Internet principles are protected and fostered.

Tags: 2015 goals, broadband, ietf, internet, Macedonia, multi-stakeholder community, UN Broadband Commission

Over the last few months, a growing consensus has emerged pointing to a dramatic change in the way people access the Internet.

In 2011, for the first time ever, worldwide annual demand for smart phones surpassed that of PCs, laptops and tablets combined. Then last month our Mobile Visual Networking Index (VNI) Update reported that global mobile data traffic is growing even faster than previously forecasted and will increase 18-fold over the next five years.

So by this year’s Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February, the ‘top of mind’ for network operators, government officials and device manufacturers was the dramatic accelerating impact that mobile data consumption will have on Internet access, networks and users.

When we launched the mobile VNI report on February 14, a panel of industry, academia and government experts glimpsed into the future of mobile broadband and related policy issues, with three key takeaways:

Government policies that try to choose between wireless or wire line broadband delivery set up a false choice. Both are needed to work together. While wireless infrastructure will increasingly be the choice of most users for access, all wireless connections ultimately will lead to fiber. The network isn’t mobile, users are mobile and networks of the future will be heterogenous, combining small cells and fiber backhaul with macro cells for coverage.

Both licensed and unlicensed spectrum will be crucial to satisfy broadband demand. The VNI study highlighted the importance of “off-loading” of mobile traffic to Wi-Fi to cope with rising data consumption: currently 11% of mobile data traffic is being off-loaded by operators to small cells (including Wi-Fi and femtocells) and globally this will double to 22% by 2016 and to 37% in the US. More spectrum, and the right kind of spectrum, will need to be made available.

Cloud based services, enabling delivery of content and applications on any device at any time, will require network architectures that provide high quality of service. By 2016, cloud applications will account for 71% of total mobile data traffic (up from 45% in 2011). And because advanced cloud services require an average latency of less than 50 ms (Cisco’s Global Cloud Index), network improvements will be needed to support high quality wireless cloud experiences.

Mobile broadband subscriptions already outpace wired broadband connections, and as billions of new Internet users emerge over the coming years, mobile broadband connectivity will increasingly become how most of the world’s population connects to the Internet.

Watch the highlights of mobile VNI study in the launch video. The panel discussion begins at minute 24:00.

Tags: barcelona, cloud, fiber, global cloud index, heterogenous networks, mobile, mobile world congress, off-loading, policy, regulations, small cells, vni, wireless, wireline

The road to US spectrum reform often feels like  anything but a Superhighway.  New obstacles emerged just today, when it became apparent that House Members on the Energy and Commerce Committee have yet to reach agreement on much needed spectrum legislation.

The latest roadblock?  What to do about unlicensed spectrum.

As the leading provider of unlicensed devices in the world, Cisco has a unique business perspective on this matter and has thought a lot about this should be reconciled, and our perspective is well settled.

We strongly believe that unlicensed technology such as WiFi will be a critical part of addressing the rising demand for data traffic from smartphones, tablets, laptops, and a myriad of other mobile devices.  Mobile carriers need more spectrum to address this demand, and more spectrum is needed for unlicensed devices, too.  For unlicensed, policymakers should focus their attention on 5 GHz and the benefits of expanding the existing vibrant WiFi ecosystem.

If we take a wrong turn now, then we will miss an enormous opportunity to free up more spectrum for mobile broadband and generate billions of revenue for the federal government.

Here’s why:

First – Congressional action on spectrum would yield enormous benefits in the short term – driving economic growth, creating jobs, and spurring innovation.  With any legislation, there will be different views.  That’s part of the process.  But differences should not bring the process to a standstill.

Spectrum legislation is needed to give the FCC tools to make more wireless broadband spectrum available. Based on Cisco’s Visual Networking Index data demonstrating the projected growth in mobile data, it is critical to get this issue addressed. In addition, it is critical to move forward on transitioning more spectrum from federal use to commercial use.  We are at the very beginning of the mobile broadband explosion, and failure of policymakers to act now will mean a lack of connectivity, dropped connections, and slow data rates in the future.  No one wants that outcome.

Second – the value of WiFi and other unlicensed technologies that run on unlicensed spectrum is to take spectrum that would otherwise not be used, and to put it to productive work.  In other words, in situations where unlicensed can co-exist with an existing use, and not interfere with that use, that ability to “share” is the economic dividend that should command the policymaker’s attention.

The expansion of unlicensed technologies such as Wi-Fi from the original 2.4 GHz band into 5 GHz occurs in a shared environment and has proven to be remarkably successful– unlicensed shares with federal systems at 5 GHz, using spectrum that would otherwise lie fallow.   Maximizing industry’s ability to put that spectrum to work, without creating harmful interference to existing users, should be everyone’s goal in a world where WiFi is in every mobile device, and new WiFi applications are growing at a brisk clip.

Third – a critical question in spectrum reform is whether the reform will result in spectrum being put to work in the economy.  Unlicensed spectrum at 5 GHz consists of an ecosystem of large, well-established chipset manufacturers, hundreds of radio manufacturers and others who already are producing technology for sale in most countries of the world.   If additional unlicensed spectrum is made available at 5 GHz, there is an immediate impact to US industry to produce innovative new products, and drive new applications, to benefit business and consumers.   For that reason, Cisco strongly favors policies that support an examination of whether additional shared spectrum at 5 GHz can be made available to unlicensed.

Proposals before Congress to create a new, sub 3-GHz spectrum band for unlicensed, such as a new band in the TV UHF band dedicated to unlicensed, put the emphasis in the wrong place.  New radio ecosystems, even in favorable circumstances, can take a decade or more to develop, leaving spectrum unused at a time when the licensed mobile industry has an acute demand for it.  Whether a new unlicensed ecosystem could successfully develop in the UHF band is anybody’s guess.

Of equal importance, clearing spectrum below 3 GHz for unlicensed  excludes one use (licensed mobile) in favor of another  (unlicensed).  Contrast that to unlicensed use at 5 GHz, where existing federal users remain, unlicensed devices operate on spectrum that would otherwise remain idle, and everyone benefits from more intensive use of the radio spectrum.  To Cisco, shared spectrum use, building off the  existing ecosystem at 5 GHz, presents the most compelling vision for unlicensed.

Cisco is pleased that the White House announced yesterday that it submitted to Congress the implementing legislation for pending free trade agreements with Korea, Colombia and Panama.  Cisco supports Congressional passage of the bills – along with legislation to renew the Trade Adjustment Assistance program – in a few short weeks.

As described previously, we expect implementation of the agreements to increase market access for Cisco products and services in these rapidly-growing markets.

Cisco welcomes Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus’ (D-MT) announcement yesterday that the Committee intends to move legislation to implement pending U.S. free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, as well as to renew Trade Adjustment Assistance. Cisco also appreciates the bipartisan approach taken by Committee’s Ranking Member Orin Hatch (R-UT), who has been instrumental in helping build consensus and create momentum in Congress to pass these agreements. As I’ve indicated in previous posts, Cisco supports Congressional passage of trade agreements as soon as possible, and we expect implementation to increase market access in these growing markets.

For all of you who rely on your smartphone, tablet or laptop, your elected representatives have given you  something to cheer about. Mobile data traffic is projected by Cisco to grow 21 times between 2010 and 2015, from about 45 petabytes per month to over 900 petabytes per month.  All those “bytes” need radio spectrum – and lots of it.  More spectrum than is available today.  And more spectrum than what the US government can provide based on current inventories.

The Senate Commerce Committee looked the mobile future in the face and today approved Senator Jay Rockefeller’s (D-WV) and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson’s (R-TX) bill to make available significant new spectrum for commercial wireless networks (both licensed and unlicensed) and for public safety.  While there is likely to be a long and winding road before Congress sends a spectrum bill to the White House, a committee vote is an important milestone in moving from policy ideas to concrete legislation.

The Senate Commerce Committee’s action today, if it becomes law, would open a minimum of 84 MHz, and quite possibly more, spectrum for licensed carrier use in spectrum now assigned to broadcast television.  It would also require the FCC and the National Telecommunications and Information Agency to consider opening an additional 120 MHz of spectrum in the 5 GHz band – now increasingly used for Wi Fi.  Public safety would get more spectrum, too, from a 10 MHz piece of spectrum previously assigned to commercial uses but not auctioned.

Is all this spectrum really necessary? Yes.  With demand soaring at unprecedented rate, carriers are increasingly offloading data traffic to Wi Fi.  The wireless technologies that are used to deliver broadband access require broad blocks of spectrum to work efficiently.  More spectrum provides a path forward for innovation – for newer, faster and better devices and applications.  And the action helps each of us in our daily lives – more spectrum will be a huge help in avoiding future congestion so that we can enjoy all those powerful (and fun!) devices and applications.

Cisco joined with the tech industry to advance this legislation, and we will continue to champion the cause of more spectrum as the bill continues to wind its course through Congress.

The White House announced today that it had reached agreement with the government of Colombia on labor rights, which will “…clear the way for the U.S.-Colombia Trade Agreement to move forward to Congress.”

Cisco applauds both governments for agreeing on a path forward and is pleased that the U.S. Congress will soon consider implementing legislation for the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Cisco strongly supports passage of the FTA, whose implementation will provide meaningful commercial benefits. For example, Colombia has agreed to adopt the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), which will result in the elimination of import duties ranging from 5% to 15% on information & communications technology products exported to Colombia, providing economic stimulus to both economies.

Cisco detailed these and other benefits of the U.S.-Colombia FTA in remarks to Congressional staff during a high-tech industry briefing last week.

As a member of the Latin America Trade Coalition and of the U.S.-Korea FTA Business Coalition, Cisco joins our colleagues in the high-technology industry and broader business community to support swift Congressional passage and implementation of the pending FTAs.

At a White House event today, 112 economists — including Nobel Laureates, distinguished academics, and former government officials from both parties — presented a letter to President Obama on radio spectrum.  The message?

The President should support, and Congress should pass, legislation granting the Federal Communications Commission voluntary incentive auction authority.

In fact, the President’s economic team, and many Congressional Republicans and Democrats, are of the view that this new type of auction is the best path forward to transforming how we use radio spectrum in the 21^st Century.  And there is broad consensus that the demand for mobile broadband is rising.  Cisco believes that from 2010to 2015, the United States will see mobile data rising by a factor of 26.

So, there is little controversy about the concept of voluntary incentive auctions, an idea that was born from the FCC’s analysis that it needed to find spectrum quickly to meet the sharply increasing demand for mobile broadband data.  Simply put, incentive auctions provide a financial incentive that allows incumbent spectrum holders to sell existing spectrum so that it can be repurposed for broadband.

The debate is now over the details. How much money would such an auction raise? How much “incentive” do you provide?  Can this voluntary mechanism provide enough spectrum to address the looming spectrum crunch?

Today’s letter makes it clear that the time is now to get those questions answered.  The stakes are too high not to do so.

Consumers, who want high quality data services and who are increasingly buying more and more mobile devices have a stake. So do businesses which depend upon mobile workers and wireless M2M in their future.  So do taxpayers, who should see a significant contribution to the federal treasury – the last significant auction of spectrum raised $19 billion.

This issue isn’t partisan. Market-based mechanisms like incentive auctions are the best way to allow radio spectrum to be placed to its highest, best use and to do so with a minimum of transaction costs.

Congress should move this item to the top of the agenda, and take action soon to give the FCC the authority it needs.

Can 112 economists be wrong? I don’t think so.

On Monday, I offered remarks to approximately thirty staff in the U.S. House of Representatives on the benefits of the U.S.-Korea, U.S.-Colombia and U.S.-Panama Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), along with high-tech industry colleagues from IBM, Microsoft, HP and Intel. It was great to have an opportunity to talk about how Cisco and our customers would be impacted by implementation of these agreements, and for the industry to emphasize the importance of open trade policy to help fuel international competitiveness. Most trade analysts expect Congress to pass the U.S.-Korea FTA first, as American companies would be at a market disadvantage vis-à-vis European-based competitors after July 1, when the EU-Korea FTA goes into effect. Cisco supports passage of all three agreements, and we’re hopeful that the Obama Administration is able to work through any remaining issues on the FTAs with Colombia and Panama as soon as possible.

What do the Super Bowl and Kate and William’s royal wedding have in common?  Both involve Big Ben, absolutely absurd “proposition” bets (How long will it take Christina Aguilera to sing the National Anthem? What color hat will the Queen be wearing?), and each will attract enormous  worldwide audiences.

One other thing:  it’s a sure thing that more of us will watch these events on tablets, laptops, smart phones and other mobile devices than ever before.

Today’s release of Cisco’s 2011 Visual Network Index Global Mobile Data Forecast confirms this:  we have an insatiable appetite for mobile devices and the applications that those devices deliver.

Here’s what the data reveal:   despite the global economic woes in many regions, growth in demand for mobile data has held steady or increased.   Nothing is stopping that growth.  Not offloading mobile traffic to fixed networks via Wi-Fi or Femto cells. Not tiered pricing plans offered by mobile carriers.  Growth projections may adjust year to year, but the direction is clearly up, up, and away.

Consider this:

• By 2015, there will be more than 5.6 billion handheld or personal devices and more than 1.5 billion machine to machine devices.
• During that same period, global mobile traffic will outgrow fixed data traffic by 3.3 times to 75 exabytes annually (compare: 19 billion DVDs – that’s a lot of movies!)
• Mobile video, in all kinds of applications, will make up 2/3 of mobile data traffic in five years.

All over the globe, we want computing power in our hands and on our laps, and once we have it, we want more of it and we use more of it – all driving more packets over mobile networks, which themselves will become faster over the next five years.

The phenomenon is truly global. From countries like India (Compound Annual Growth Rate CAGRof 158% for the forecast period) and Mexico (CAGR of 131%), to the Middle East and Africa (regionally, a CAGR of 129%).

No corner of the globe is exempt so long as there’s some way to get those batteries charged.  By 2015, Cisco projects the world will be consuming 6.3 exabytes/month of mobile data.   In the US, we tapped, clicked, talked, and watched about 16.4m gigabits/month of mobile data in 2009. In 2015, that number grows to 914.6 million gigabits/month – a CAGR of 83%.

Governments and regulators around the world would be well served to heed the example of US policymakers, who are actively on the hunt for new spectrum to meet the rising demand for mobile data.  The US FCC and the Obama Administration want to identify, and repurpose, 500 MHz of spectrum for wireless broadband use by 2020, and deliver the first 300 MHz of that total by 2015.  Congress is already at work to provide needed tools, such as voluntary incentive auctions, to help deliver radio spectrum that is the lifeblood of mobile networks.

It’s a safe bet we’re going to need more radio spectrum to keep up with demand.  At least for those of us who care about football highlights and Kate Middleton’s wedding dress.

On Tuesday morning I was honored to represent Cisco in a roundtable discussion sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) about the role of the federal government in standards.  (Watch the webcast here.)

Standards play a vital role in fueling innovation, promoting competition, lowering technology costs and accelerating market growth – particularly when they are the result of an industry-led, consensus-based open, and transparent process, and voluntarily-adopted in the market.

Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke opened  the event, reminding us of “…the tremendous impact standards can have on U.S. competitiveness, innovation, job creation, and – ultimately – our standard of living.” U.S. Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra then inspired attendees by stressing the importance of open dialogue and public participation in government.  Phil Weiser, White House National Economic Council Senior Advisor on Technology and Innovation, moderated the panel discussion on what role the U.S. Government should and shouldn’t play in the domestic and international standards arenas.  And Commerce Undersecretary and NIST leader Pat Gallagher reiterated NIST’s commitment to driving effective standards development for Smart Grid and other initiatives.

I focused on three main areas where the U.S. Government has a vital role to play and supporting and defending U.S. interests in standards:

The US Government can serve as convenor of industry-led standards efforts, as currently demonstrated by the leadership that the NIST has provided in the Smart Grid Interoperability Panel process. By creating an open platform for participation of over 1,500 entities – from utilities, academia, regulatory agencies, ICT solutions providers and the like – NIST serves an invaluable role in shepherding and accelerating the identification of interoperability standards that are essential in building a secure, robust smart grid capable of meeting this country’s current and future energy needs. As part of that effort, we believe that NIST could go even further in giving preference to standards that are developed in standards-development organizations that meet four key tests:

• Allowing negotiation of royalty rates at the time a standard is being adopted, rather than after everyone has accepted it;
• Setting the value of IP based on the centrality of its contribution to the standard;
• Valuing intellectual property based on the available alternatives at the time the standard is adopted, and;
• Not utilizing injunctions except where a prospective licensee refuses to a pay an objectively- determined reasonable and nondiscriminatory (RAND) royalty.

To be clear, we’re not suggesting that NIST would mandate a standard itself, rather that it would set a framework of transparency in the standards-development process.

After nearly 12 years since its last revision, the USG could also consider updating OMB Circular No. A-119, which establishes policies on Federal use and development of voluntary consensus standards and on conformity assessment activities. The Circular could be revised further to give preference to the federal government’s use of products and solutions that are standardized in SDOs which observe the four-part test: ex ante negotiation, value based on centrality of contribution, valuation prior to adoption and avoidance of injunctions.

The US Government may also want to consider its role as defender of U.S. competitive interests abroad. While certain U.S. trading partners appear to use standards and the standards development process to create technical barriers to trade that favor domestic industries and jeopardize American intellectual property rights, the US Government should consider using all of its available policy and political tools to promote and safeguard U.S. interests, including the launch of legal proceedings in the World Trade Organization.

President Obama has said that American industry does best when the is a level playing field, and on Tuesday night he spoke of the importance of innovation in his State of the Union address. Cisco will work in partnership with the U.S. and other supportive governments to facilitate and ensure a level playing field by encouraging industry-led, open, transparent standards development processes, and their voluntary adoption.

A while back, I blogged on the topic of Sovereignty and National Security. Since then, much has happened, most notably the moves by some governments to require access to source code on the grounds of national security before a foreign product can be imported and used in the country. Others have insisted for products to be manufactured locally, or that intellectual know-how of the product be transferred as part of the conditions of permitting a product to be procured. These are variations of the recurring theme of requiring local control to ensure national security and to protect sovereignty against foreign influence.

One cannot deny that there are very real security concerns and threats faced by governments today that need to be addressed more adequately. Even consumers are rightly worried about security of their data and personal information, especially as more cloud computing services become available.

Some argue that proprietary products are ‘secretive’, and that they rely on the customers’ faith in the vendor that the products operate securely. Others say that it is much easier for attackers to uncover vulnerabilities when they have access to the source code, rather than trying to compromise a “black-box”.

Who is right? Is the disclosure of source code directly correlated to product security? Is there a better way to ensure security without resorting to excluding the use of foreign manufactured products?

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Tags: assessment, audit, certification, evaluation, national security, security, source code, sovereignty

Californians know how to invest in the future. Believing in our collective ability to drive towards positive change, Cisco urges Californians to vote No on Prop 23.

For decades, California has led the way when it comes to addressing global warming in the US with a proven track record of not only achieving impressive results, but also stimulating investment in new businesses and technologies creating thousands of new jobs. From California’s imposition of stricter-than-federal tailpipe emissions regulations to its global leadership in increasing energy efficiency per unit of GDP growth, Californians know how to address societal challenges in ways that increase economic prosperity. By investing in the future, not living in the past, California can and should do both.

Doing both means that you we look at challenges as opportunities, you evaluate threats by thinking about them differently. Doing both rejects “zero sum” thinking in favor of collaborative decision-making. It is inherently optimistic, as I believe most Californians are. So when some assert that California can not afford to carry through on its climate commitments without losing jobs, I can’t help but ponder the possibilities of doing both.

On the ballot in November, Proposition 23 would roll-back California’s greenhouse gas law (AB 32), low-carbon fuel standard, and rules requiring utilities to source 33% of their electricity from renewables by 2020.
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Tags: California, no on prop 23

Significant news today from the federal agencies whose job it is to find 500 MHz of radio spectrum needed for the booming mobile broadband market, 300 MHz of that needed in the next five years.

First, the National Information and Telecommunications Administration in the Department of Commerce announced that it would soon be releasing a report that will identify 115 MHz of spectrum available for commercial broadband in the next 5 years:  1675-1710 MHz and 3550-3650 MHz.   NTIA also said it would continue to examine 20 MHz of spectrum on both ends of the 4200-4400 MHz band for possible use, as well as potentially relocating federal users at 1755-1780 MHz.

Meanwhile, across town, the Federal Communications Commission hosted a day-long Spectrum Summit.  At that Summit, the FCC released the results of a new study:  “Mobile Broadband:  The Benefits of Additional Spectrum.”  I’m pleased that Cisco figures prominently in that study since the FCC used Cisco’s own Visual Networking Index demand data in evaluating the future demand curve for mobile broadband. The FCC’s study concludes that the demand growth will outpace both technology’s ability to become more efficient, and carriers’ ability to add more cell sites, so that by 2015, we’ll need 300 MHz of new spectrum to meet demand.   If anything, the FCC’s prediction may be very conservative.

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Tags: broadband, FCC, mobile

In working across different countries on their broadband strategies, inevitably the question arises of how does one best measure broadband penetration. Some countries have published figures of broadband based on a population (per capita) basis, while others have opted to adopt measures of broadband penetration by household. Why the difference of approach and what’s the significance of using one over the other?

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Tags: broadband, household, penetration, per capita, population, statistics