“I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place. ” –Winston Churchill It is the time of the year where many of us are sprinting — or crawling on all fours — to the rest and rewards of the holidays. Seeing today is the winter solstice, I thought it an apt time to post my top 10 predictions for Enterprise Mobility for 2007. As the days start, again, to lengthen, let us see how accurate these will prove. 1. 2007 will be the year mobility means more than cell phones. For most people, mobility is exclusively tied to our mobile phones. While voice communications clearly will be one of the key drivers for enterprise mobility for many years to come, I think we saw a lot of other activity in 2006 that suggests more will be afoot next year. Access to horizontal business applications like SAP as well as specialized vertical applications in healthcare, insurance, government and every other industry will become the next drive. And as varied as the applications are, so we will see the utilization of lots of other mobile devices, including PDAs and mini-PCs (http://www.sonystyle.com/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/eCS/Store/en/-/USD/SY_BrowseCatalog-Start?CategoryName=cpu_VAIONotebookComputers_UX_Series&Dept=computers). In addition, emerging consumer variation of platforms like gaming devices -as we saw in the entrance of the Sony MYLO -will appear in 2007.2. Mobility services, more than access technologies, will drive the growth of wireless and mobile technologies. In 2006, Cisco introduced the concept of”mobility solutions.” Although Internet and LAN access has driven much of the push for secure wireless services, we saw our work in context-rich applications such as location-based asset tracking really start to take off (expect integrated GPS services also to start to play bigger). Also, rich handoffs and variations of unified communications services are likely to be a big winner next year as will guest services. Stay tuned for 4 new services in 2007.3. Mobility will become more about the experience. At their inception, we accepted performance trade-offs for the use of mobile networks and devices (remember, the opening jingle of the cellular industry 30 years ago was snap, crackle and drop!). But with increasing capability and quality, the bar has been raised. Increasingly, the performance of mobile networks is becoming richer, more bulletproof and bandwidth/QOS rich. To this, expect companies to take advantage of a more robust infrastructure by developing applications that are more mobile-aware as well as conditioned to take advantage of some of the inherent capabilities in mobility. For example, companies will make significant investments in making their webpages and internet-based applications appear/perform better on mobile (non-PC devices) as well as take advantage of mobility to provide location specific information in both business-to-business (e.g., municipal information systems) as well as business-to-consumer applications (e.g., local services)4. Expect significant increases in enterprise-wide (pervasive) WLAN deployments. As many of the initial security and management/performance issues for WLANs have been solved -and the cloud hanging over them dispersed — businesses of all sizes will see WLANs as mission-critical, specifying them in, alongside wired networks, as key infrastructure. Expect pervasive deployments to grow faster in the”office vertical” than the market growth rate for WLAN.5. Emerging markets will lead the way in wireless broadband as a primary access infrastructure. In many emerging markets, wireless data networks, including Wi-Fi Mesh as well as WiMAX, along with cellular, will offer new alternatives for primary broadband access. In existing markets with strong wired infrastructure, the marginal costs of adding new subscribers are very low. In markets without wired broadband, wireless technologies could prove very interesting, economically, as an alternative to wiring.6. Network Identity will emerge as a critical component of mobility services. Increasingly how you”are served” on the network will depend on who you are. Mobile network services will now offer services (bandwidth/QoS, security), capabilities (based on location or presence) and application access by knowing who you are.7. Gaming approaches will support mobile networks. As the generation of workers weaned on Internet or multi-party gaming join the work force, expect them to use mobile technologies to change the nature of work. So, lest you think I launched into spiked eggnog too early, let me explain. What is interesting about gamers is how they form together to start a game (guild). The leader (guild master) puts the game in play and then dissolves it when it is over. The next game may be led by another leader. To wit, project work can integrate people and information from a broad range of environments, whether people are in the same network or company, or whether than are in another country on a wireless connection. 8. The hype around mobile TV and advertisements will give way to corporate mobile video. With all due respect to the people watching ESPNMobile, I think a lot of short video may come from corporations reaching people via non-pc devices. What could be more useful than a salesperson about to go in being able to watch a video of the company’s best salesperson pitching their newest product on their TREO for 2 ½ minutes. Increasingly, video is making its way into business training and communications, not just YouTube, and that is something people will pay for9. Cellular operators will become open to new wireless access technologies. Although many cellular equipment vendors tried to cause a WLAN v. cellular technology religion debate over the past few years, increasingly carriers are looking at newer technologies as a way to deliver broadband data and other services. One of the clearest examples of this is SingTel’s decision to build a Wi-Fi mesh network across Northern Singapore. 10. Mobility will help drive the Internet of Things. Although much of the discussion around mobile technologies focuses on people communicating with people or people accessing information, increasingly devices talking to other devices is becoming important. This is the critical underpinning behind RFID and Active WLAN tags. In 2007, the language of location and tags will move more to asset optimization and the one of the critical aspects of Web 2.0: bringing analog assets into the digital world. What this last point means is that sensors, RFID and other capabilities will allow billions and billions of assets (goods, badges, blade servers, subway cards -you name it) to be recognized by the network and hence provide data and insight into how systems are run and lives take place. This will ultimately mean the 400M WLAN devices in service today will look like a drop in the bucket in comparison to the hundreds of billions or trillions of devices connected through wireless and mobile networks. Now, that sounds like Enterprise Mobility
It’s been 5 years since one of my favorite writers Ken Kesey died. The author of One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and Sometimes a Great Notion, was a great entertainer (who I interviewed in college) as well as a great writer. Although he is mostly You don’t lead by pointing and telling people some place to go. You lead by going to that place and making a case.
Wlcm 2 d HNKhEr Mobility wiL chAng how we communicate.LOLMobility changes evrytingTWT whether we ll comnC8 dis wA bt we ll knw ttttAs d mobility gNR8N enters d wrk 4SCMIIWu myt sA Im %-),ppl r gunA stop spkg n ryTN n sentences?Im :-Kwel, d ability 2 comnC8 n real tym, W msngr clients, smrt fons n cmputAs S changiN d nature of lang, cr8ing a wrld of messengeristsn biz wl nvr B d same:@f u cn msg, yr biz cn mve w/u;(f I cn lern it, so cn utym 2 TCOBAnd now, the translation: Welcome to the human network.Here Mobility will change how we communicateLOLMobility changes everythingTime will tell whether we all communicate this wayBut we all know these things take timeAs the mobility generation enters the work forceCall me if I am wrongYou might say I am confused,People are going to stop speaking and writing in sentences?I am puzzledWell, the ability to communicate in real time, with messenger clients, smart phones and computers is changing the nature of language, creating a world of messengeristsAnd business will never be the sameIt’s true If you can message, your business can move with youChin upIf I can learn it, so can youTime to take care of business
Today Cisco made an announcement about a very large Wi-Fi Mesh network that is going to be deployed by SingTel and the InfoCom authority of Singapore http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/global/asiapac/news/2006/pr_11-29.html?CMP=AFC-001&vs_f=News@Cisco:%20News%20Releases&vs_p=News@Cisco:%20News%20Releases&vs_k=1Rather than reflect on the news, I would like to fast foward 3 years and try to tackle a burning question in the marketplace today: will outdoor Wi-Fi canablize cellular services.My personal belief is absolutely not. We are increasingly moving into an era where the issue the issue is not Cellular or Wi-Fi, but Cellular and Wi-Fi. Fast forward 3 years, and it will be Cellular and Wi-Fi and WiMAX. As devices become smarter, able to move seamless across differ RF and Wired network networks, increasingly being able to deliver seamless, un-interrupted services, we will see these services coexist.Much of the investment going into public, unlicensed services are predicated upon a range of new users for data services. Over time, voice is likely to come as well. Client technology will improve and also contribute to supporting latency sensitive applications.The interesting issue, is that the spectrum, interference, reliability and operations issues are common across these networks. There are benefits and pitfalls of operating at different frequencies (e.g., higher frequency, smaller cell size) as well as if the spectrum is shared or dedicated. To wit, much of the hype around WiMAX is around whether unlicensed WiMAX will take off. For many of the applications being discussed, licensed WiMAX makes more sense. Wi-Fi, to wit, was concieved for a busy environment where users must live with interference within the efforts to share the spectrum established by the standard.One of the myths during the early Internet era was would it kill television. It turned out people consumed more media, not less. Cable is killing network television. It is about choice..What do you think readers? As Mark Twain noted: “Plain question and plain answer make the shortest road out of most perplexities.”
Here in the U.S. we are easing toward the Thanksgiving Holiday, a traditional meal and gathering at the close of Harvest season. In the Livermore valley, the grape leaves are gold, red and brown, shriveing into to the relatively mild season that passes for winter here in Northern California. U.S. traditions peg the Thanksgiiving holiday to a meal held in 1621 by the Wampanoag and the Pilgrims who settled in Plymouth, Massachusetts. Perhaps a mythic event, it represents the best of what we believe in our nation: that we can share the land, share in our nation’s bounty and respect our neighbors, no matter what color, creed or religous belief they hold.For me, however, Thanksgiving time has one flaw: it the holiday that celebrates the football game (including the backyard football game of my extended family). Now, don’t get me wrong, I love football, but I always wondered why we did not play babeball on Thanksgiving. Baseball is America’s “past-time,” and when Abraham Lincoln declared thanksgiving a national holiday in 1863 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1863 baseball was a well known AMERICAN sport with established teams and rules. An even older sport, football was played in various forms apparently since 600 A.D., with a strong thread running through the British Isles.In addition to my baseball yearnings for Thanksgiving, another great American (and our boss) John Chambers marked a breakthrough event for sports and technology fans, everywhere, with the announcement of Cisco field. In the next few years, the Oakland As will be moving south to Fremont to take residence in what I can only imagine will be the most technologically sophisticated ballpark/stadium in the world. It was a rich table of sport and technology he laid not only for Silicon Valley, but all of the world.The 34,000-seat Cisco Field will feature a wireless network on which fans can use handheld devices to watch instant replays, order food and beverages, communicate with friends, and keep score. Fans will be able to buy tickets online, receive their ticket as a file on a smartphone to show at the gate, and visit kiosks inside the stadium to upgrade their seats. Stadium employees will use other handheld communicators that use radio-frequency identity (RFID) technology to locate and talk to each other.”This is about how we take America’s favorite pastime and enable it for where the future will be,” Chambers at the announcement, accompanied by A’s owner Lewis Wolff, Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig and others. He added that as many as 80 technology applications have been considered for the stadium.Completion of the new stadium, near Cisco’s San Jose headquarters, may be three to five years away. Cisco is also weighing which technology companies it will will partner with to develop the platform for Cisco Field. Similar Cisco technology is deployed at Busch Stadium, the home field of WORLD SERIES CHAMPION baseball’s St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis, Missouri. http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp?c_id=stlTechnology, especially wireless technology, is permeating and influencing every aspect of our lives. In John Chambers’ words “consumers are embracing technology in their work and home environments, more now than ever before, and we believe that technology can have a major impact on the fan experience at ballparks as well. Today, there is a certain expectation from fans that new athletic facilities have cutting-edge technology. Cisco and the A’s will be setting new standards in terms of the field and the surrounding village…we can leverage both entertainment and sports to showcase the value of the network to enhance the fan experience.”Now, pass the gravy and stuffing. This thanksgiving we can celebrate, sport, family, community and technology together here in the Bay area.