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2015 Cisco VNI Complete Forecast Update: Key Trends Include Mobility, M2M and Multimedia Content

Today, Cisco released the 10th annual VNI Global IP Traffic and Service Adoption Forecasts for 2014 – 2019 (see media release). The primary drivers of global IP traffic growth continue to show increases that will create a greater global demand for IP network resources.

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As a result of these fundamentals, we are projecting that global IP traffic will grow three-fold from 2014 to 2019 –reaching 2.0 Zettabytes annually by 2019 (a 23% CAGR over the forecast period).

While these projections and metrics are both interesting and important in terms of developing a macro-level understanding of the current and future global IP networking landscape, a deeper analysis reveals several key trends. A closer inspection of the forecast results provides the following valuable insights:

  • How people and things are connecting to IP networks?
  • What things that were previously unconnected are becoming connected?
  • What type of content is being transported over IP networks?

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APAC leads Global mobile trends

The annual Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, just out, once again shows the phenomenal growth expected in the mobile industry, e.g. more than 5.2 billion global mobile users by 2019 and 10-fold mobile traffic growth over the next five years. See Thomas Barnett’s blog to learn more.

For me the interest is to look into the APAC specific trends and the unique characteristics of this very diverse region. APAC averages show trends similar to the Global view, but let’s compare super developed Japan with the developing markets in Indonesia and India also:

Cisco VNI Mobile Data APAC Statistics for 2014

Cisco VNI Mobile Data APAC Statistics for 2014

Some observations on demand; Developed markets are already dominated by smart devices and their large data consumption, but driven by new connections (multiple devices per user and M2M(machine 2 machine)) demand still grows. Developing markets are still migrating Read More »

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Three Mobile Trends to Watch

Updated 2015 VNI Mobile Forecast Reveals Potential “Wildcards” for Mobile Devices, Networks and Services

This week, Cisco released its annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2014 – 2019. Among the traditional top-line growth projections that indicate a healthy mobile industry (e.g., more than 5.2 billion global mobile users by 2019 and 10-fold mobile traffic growth over the next five years), there were several interesting trends that could have significant implications for mobile networking in the near future.

Mobile Devices: Laptops make a comeback and phablets start to emerge

While there is an overall growth in the number of mobile devices and connections, there is also a visible shift in the device mix. This year forecast shows a slight slowdown in the growth of tablets as a new device sub-category, phablets (included in our smartphone category), were began to show global adoption. Tablet growth was also affected by the introduction of lightweight laptops, which are quite similar to tablets in form factor but have more enhanced capabilities. Today, tablets are primarily being used as content consumption devices – ideally suited for video viewing in particular. Laptops are still serving as the dominant content creation device, particularly for business users (e.g., presentation, spreadsheet, and document development). While the absolute numbers or volume for smartphones (4.6 billion by 2019), tablets (nearly 300 million by 2019) and laptops (nearly 250 million by 2019) are growing, they are all losing their percentage share of total mobile devices and connections to the fastest growing mobile connection type – M2M (3.2 billion by 2019).

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Mobile Networks: Low Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) networks may be optimal for campus-wide IoE applications

This year’s forecast includes M2M nodes connected via Low-Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) networks. These networks are Read More »

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Evaluating Fixed and Mobile Networks for Cloud Readiness

Access networks are fundamental to superior cloud experiences

As a complement to the fourth annual update of the Global Cloud Index, or GCI (see media release), we’ve once again included the Cloud Readiness Supplement. According to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (or NIST), which is an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, one of the five essential characteristics of cloud computing is broadband access.

  • Broad network access: Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and workstations). See complete NIST Cloud definition.

The Cloud Readiness Supplement provides a recommended set of access requirements to support a range of cloud services (both individually and concurrently).

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How Much Traffic Will Your Cable / Telco Network Generate?

Cisco VNI Forecast Projects 1.6 Zettabytes of Global IP Traffic by 2018

Last June, Cisco released an update to its annual Visual Networking Index (VNI), 2013 – 2018. The forecast projects a global annual run rate of 1.6 zettabytes IP traffic by 2018 (up from 614 exabytes of global IP traffic in 2013).  A zettabyte certainly sounds like a big number (equivalent to 1 billion terabytes, external storage drives generally come in a terabyte denomination). But how can this forecast methodology be applied to an individual cable or a telecommunications provider’s footprint?  Our updated Cable/Telco Service Provider Abstract Network (CT-SPAN) tool can help answer this question.  CT-SPAN is developed using the latest VNI assumptions for fixed networks and enable you to quickly develop customized service provider scenarios to estimate the annual traffic forecasts and revenue. It’s as easy as 1-2-3.

1. Select your region and service provider type as well as some basic subscriber and network info.
12. Provide some high-level application info.

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3. Start reviewing/analyzing your customized subscriber and network projections.

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2014 CT-SPAN Enhancements

This year, Read More »

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