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Cisco’s Mobile VNI Forecast: What Does it All Mean?

Earlier this week, Cisco announced its latest Cisco Visual Networking Index Mobile Forecast, 2011-2016, from the Royal Opera House in London.

The report showed that global mobile Internet traffic is expected to grow 18-fold over the forecast period, reaching 130 exabytes annually by 2016 – the equivalent of 33 billion DVDs going across mobile networks every year.

But what does this significant growth of mobile traffic mean for mobile operators?  How will the changing mix of mobile devices and connections (such as smartphones, tablets and M2M) impact their networks, their businesses, and strategic partnerships?  We asked some of the industry’s most experienced and knowledgeable independent analysts and consultants to give us their perspectives.

To see the complete report, including global, regional and some country-level forecast projections, go to www.cisco.com/go/vni, and watch a VoD of the February 14, 2012 VNI Mobile event here.

Thanks as always for reading.

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The Mobile Data Tsunami

Cisco just released the 2012 edition of its mobile VNI* report, entitled Cisco VNI Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016.”

The report’s conclusion: a tsunami of mobile data traffic is headed our way, growing in size and speed through 2016 and likely beyond.  Over the next five years, mobile data traffic worldwide will grow 18-fold!

Read More »

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Full Speed Ahead Traffic to Increase 18X by 2016

Today in a global webcast from the Royal Opera House in London, we announced our annual Cisco Visual Networking Index Mobile Forecast, 2011-2016, to a global audience.  While some people may have been anticipating a decrease in mobile traffic considering the importance service providers are placing on mobile traffic offload and the tiered pricing plans being put in place for subscriber, just the opposite occurred.  Even in the face of those downward pressures along with the continuing economic uncertainties, the total amount of traffic in the forecast period is expected to soar 18-fold from 2011 to 2016, reaching 130 exabytes annually.  To put that amount into perspective, an exabyte is 10 to the 18th power of bytes which is a large number in its own right;  130 exabytes is the data equivalent of having 33 billion DVDs streamed in the airwaves around us each year. Read More »

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Updated! – Cisco Mobile Visual Networking Index

Over the past several years, Cisco introduced and has regularly updated and expanded its well-received Visual Networking Index (VNI), which projects IP traffic trends based upon independent analyst forecasts, mobile data usage surveys from operators and other primary research. 

As part of its VNI initiative, Cisco also developed the Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, and the most recent update has just been issued.

The updated forecast includes findings such as:

  • By 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually). Global mobile data traffic will increase 18X from 2011 -- 2016 (78% CAGR from 2011 -- 2016).  The 130 exabytes is 4.5 times more than all IP traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in 2005 (29 exabytes).
  • Based on Cisco VNI research, global mobile data traffic increased 133% from calendar year-end 2010 to calendar year-end 2011 (CY2011 = 597 petabytes per month or nearly 149 million DVDs per month).
  • In 2011, global mobile data traffic grew 3.4 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.  From 2011 to 2016, global mobile data traffic will grow 3 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.

Other pertinent points include:

  • In spite of uncertain economic conditions in many parts of the world, the demand for mobile services and content has in fact grown in every global region.
  • An increased amount of mobile traffic being offloaded to fixed networks, and the implementation of tiered mobile service pricing and data caps have not had a significant dampening effect on global mobile data traffic growth (the top 1% has been throttled to some degree).
  • In 2011, global mobile data traffic more than doubled (2.3X growth) for the fourth year in a row.

Following are links to relevant documents and information:

We welcome your questions . . . for greater detail, email traffic-inquiries@cisco.com.

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Usage-Based Billing by Service Providers?

In the past five years, consumer monthly Internet usage has grown nearly three-fold, but users spend little more than in 2006. According to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index Global Forecast 2011, consumption per U.S. user grew 278 percent. In that same time frame, according to published research, the monthly U.S. cable broadband ARPU remained virtually flat.

As consumers increasingly rely on their broadband access for more of the basic everyday needs, broadband has become the most important core service provider service when compared to pay TV, mobile voice, landline phone and mobile data. But these broadband service providers are struggling to get consumers to equate the value of their online experiences with the value of their broadband service. To that end, SPs are actively considering usage-based billing strategies as a tool to align consumer value perceptions with their underlying networks. Anecdotal evidence from non-U.S. SPs that have introduced usage-based billing indicates that it can drive new value creation.

To help explore consumers’ perspectives, Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) conducted a survey of broadband users in the United States, Canada, France, and Italy to determine current views on usage-based billing policies and approaches.

This particular document is titled “Usage-Based Billing Strategies Can Enable SPs to Align Customer Value Perception with Network Investments”.   It can be found on the Service Provider Thought Leadership section of the website of Cisco IBSG.  At this site, you will find many interesting, provocative papers on various subjects relating to the service provider segment.  

Check this and others out . . .

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