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Updated! – Cisco Mobile Visual Networking Index

Over the past several years, Cisco introduced and has regularly updated and expanded its well-received Visual Networking Index (VNI), which projects IP traffic trends based upon independent analyst forecasts, mobile data usage surveys from operators and other primary research. 

As part of its VNI initiative, Cisco also developed the Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, and the most recent update has just been issued.

The updated forecast includes findings such as:

  • By 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually). Global mobile data traffic will increase 18X from 2011 -- 2016 (78% CAGR from 2011 -- 2016).  The 130 exabytes is 4.5 times more than all IP traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in 2005 (29 exabytes).
  • Based on Cisco VNI research, global mobile data traffic increased 133% from calendar year-end 2010 to calendar year-end 2011 (CY2011 = 597 petabytes per month or nearly 149 million DVDs per month).
  • In 2011, global mobile data traffic grew 3.4 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.  From 2011 to 2016, global mobile data traffic will grow 3 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.

Other pertinent points include:

  • In spite of uncertain economic conditions in many parts of the world, the demand for mobile services and content has in fact grown in every global region.
  • An increased amount of mobile traffic being offloaded to fixed networks, and the implementation of tiered mobile service pricing and data caps have not had a significant dampening effect on global mobile data traffic growth (the top 1% has been throttled to some degree).
  • In 2011, global mobile data traffic more than doubled (2.3X growth) for the fourth year in a row.

Following are links to relevant documents and information:

We welcome your questions . . . for greater detail, email traffic-inquiries@cisco.com.

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Usage-Based Billing by Service Providers?

In the past five years, consumer monthly Internet usage has grown nearly three-fold, but users spend little more than in 2006. According to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index Global Forecast 2011, consumption per U.S. user grew 278 percent. In that same time frame, according to published research, the monthly U.S. cable broadband ARPU remained virtually flat.

As consumers increasingly rely on their broadband access for more of the basic everyday needs, broadband has become the most important core service provider service when compared to pay TV, mobile voice, landline phone and mobile data. But these broadband service providers are struggling to get consumers to equate the value of their online experiences with the value of their broadband service. To that end, SPs are actively considering usage-based billing strategies as a tool to align consumer value perceptions with their underlying networks. Anecdotal evidence from non-U.S. SPs that have introduced usage-based billing indicates that it can drive new value creation.

To help explore consumers’ perspectives, Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) conducted a survey of broadband users in the United States, Canada, France, and Italy to determine current views on usage-based billing policies and approaches.

This particular document is titled “Usage-Based Billing Strategies Can Enable SPs to Align Customer Value Perception with Network Investments”.   It can be found on the Service Provider Thought Leadership section of the website of Cisco IBSG.  At this site, you will find many interesting, provocative papers on various subjects relating to the service provider segment.  

Check this and others out . . .

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Cisco Drives Enhanced Video Experience Across Wireless Networks

Cisco continues on the MOVE.

At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona today, Cisco introduced MOVE (monetization, optimization, Videoscape experience) solutions that help service providers monetize and optimize mobile video.   

Cisco MOVE is a strategic framework of solutions that include Cisco Mobile Videoscape™, Cisco Service Provider Wi-Fi and Cisco Adaptive Intelligent Routing (AIR). Cisco MOVE is the next phase of Cisco’s service provider mobility strategy, which enables service providers to better monetize and optimize their networks, while delivering personalized mobile services across wired and wireless networks.

In the larger view, Cisco MOVE solutions are designed to address the increasing volume of mobile data traffic — particularly video. According to the recently released Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2010 to 2015, two-thirds of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2015. Mobile video traffic is projected to more than double every year between 2010 and 2015.

-          Cisco Mobile Videoscape enables mobile operators to deliver enhanced mobile video experiences to customers through new technology on the Cisco ASR 5000 and Cisco Unified Computing System™ platforms. These platforms link the mobile network to the larger video distribution network enabled by the Cisco Content Delivery Network capabilities of Cisco Videoscape. The solution also utilizes the capabilities of the new Cisco Videoscape Media Suite to offer efficient and cost-effective content management across multiple screens.

-           Cisco’s Service Provider Wi-Fi Solution is a carrier-grade solution allows service providers to efficiently utilize Wi-Fi for mobile data offload.  Cisco SP WiFi with the Cisco Next Generation Hotspot technology provides standardized, seamless, highly-secure authentication enabling roaming and delivering a host of new services and mobile experiences.

-          Cisco Adaptive Intelligent Routing (AIR) lowers the cost of mobile data traffic by providing service intelligence throughout the network. Extending across the Cisco ASR 1000, Cisco ASR 5000 and Cisco ASR 9000 platforms, Cisco AIR distributes and shares network and customer intelligence broadly to interact and communicate on individual traffic types, and to optimize traffic routing and handling for the best service experience at the lowest cost.

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More Momentum for the Cisco CRS

Cisco’s market-leading core-routing platform – the Carrier Routing System (CRS) – continues on a roll.

In just the last week, two key operators – Hong Kong Broadband Network (HKBN) and du, the UAE’s integrated telecom service provider – announced CRS implementations.

HKBN has committed to the Cisco CRS-3 as the foundation for its core IP next-generation network to cope with surging bandwidth demand and to extend its network coverage.

According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index, annual global IP traffic will exceed three-quarters of a zettabyte by 2014. Internet utilization by various forms of video such as TV, video on demand, Internet video, etc., is increasing and is expected to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2014. HKBN realized the need for a core router with strong investment protection to support its high-quality voice, video and Internet services. HKBN believes the Cisco CRS-3’s industry-leading scale, operating efficiency and superior service features will help maintain its “Speed Guarantee” to customers, whereby 80-percent steady speed is ensured, despite the escalating Internet demands of businesses and consumers. 

Over in the United Arab Emirates, du announced that it has converged its fixed and mobile IP transport networks using the CRS. This enables fixed-mobile convergence on du’s network to meet the demand for high-end broadband services and makes the company unique in its ability to rapidly deploy new high-bandwidth mobile applications and data packages.

This is one of the first regional fixed-mobile convergence projects in which the fixed and mobile services all run on the same IP network – with mobile (signaling and bearer), mobile data, residential Internet, business Internet, residential voice, enterprise voice, international voice, Layer 2 VPNs, Layer 3 VPNs and video running on a single IP/MPLS core powered by Cisco. By consolidating cores, du can offer its customers in the UAE a more scalable platform to deliver future services at higher quality.

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