26X.  That’s the amount of increase in traffic the global mobile internet is going to have over a 5 year span from 2010 to 2015, as forecast by the latest iteration of the Cisco Visual Networking Index released today. 

As many of you long time readers know there are few things that get me as excited as this data because:

1. While we read about point announcements here or new services there, this gives context to us all and allows us to look at the “forest” vs. just the “trees”.
2. Our customers really, really (is it overdoing it to say “really” again) like this data, which gives us an opportunity to showcase just one of the ways that we strive to be not just a vendor but a partner to them, and it’s always great to spend more time with them.
3. The data is the result of a great team that I am proud to be a part of as well as data feeds from not just third party industry analysts whose forecasts we incorporate, but also that of contributions of over 390,000 people worldwide feeding us their unique, primary data about their network experience directly from their devices.
4. I think big numbers are simply cool.

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Tags: exabyte, ip video, mobile data forecast, mobile ip traffic, research, Service Provider, visual networking index, vni

Viewing “TED talks” online is one of my favorite sources of inspiration. TED is a small nonprofit devoted to “Ideas Worth Spreading.” It started in 1984 as a conference, bringing together people from three worlds: Technology, Entertainment, Design (TED).

In a presentation earlier this year, TED’s curator, Chris Anderson, says the rise of online video is enabling a worldwide phenomenon he calls “Crowd Accelerated Innovation” — a self-fueling cycle of learning that could be as significant as the invention of the printing press.

He adds, to tap into its power, organizations will need to embrace radical openness.

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Tags: africa, innovation, TED, video, visual networking index

On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we covered the findings of the 2010 Cisco VNI Usage Study - but today is a little different.  Come on, I know you.  We’ve been together in this corner of the blogosphere for awhile now…and I know you’re already looking ahead to the weekend (as am I, my Zettabyte-loving buddies). So in that anticipatory spirit, I think it is fitting that this final post on this study be forward-looking as well.

True, I did say in the first post, that Cisco VNI Usage is focused on the current trends while the Cisco VNI Forecast is focused on the future traffic growth over the next half decade -- but these distinct research platforms are really more complementary than siloed.  That’s because we actually use the VNI Usage findings to help shape and refine the input assumptions for our VNI Forecast model.  Combined with ever-changing third-party subscription growth forecasts, VNI Usage guidance and validation helps us maintain the high level of credibility that our Forecast receives (per frequent and in-depth scrutiny from regulators and our customers).

Here are our main takeaways from the Cisco VNI team as we start to do advance work on the next revision of our Forecast:

When the two Cisco VNI research platforms are compared, there are several striking similarities:

The comparatively slight differences between VNI Usage results and VNI Forecast projections can be attributed to the source of the contributed  VNI Usage data (a random sampling of more than 20 global service providers), while the VNI Forecast effort is designed to be a comprehensive, worldwide model.  If we were to do a weighted average of providers based on the total number of broadband lines in their region, the VNI Usage numbers would likely be much higher as developed countries tend to consume more bandwidth than those countries with less developed infrastructure -- but regardless, we were quite pleased to see the independent efforts come out so closely.

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Tags: broadband subscriber, internet traffic, internet usage study, research, visual networking index, vni

So, in the previous two blog posts, here and here, we covered the following results of the 2010 Cisco VNI Usage Study:

• Q. How much broadband traffic global subscribers are generating?:
  A. 14.9 gigabytes per month, an increase of 31% from last year
• Q. What applications are global subscribers using to consume that bandwidth?:
  A. Online video applications account for 26% of total global IP traffic
• Q. When are global subscribers using network resources?:
  A. All the time, but especially during “Internet Prime Time” between 9pm and 1am (globally)

Now, let’s focus on Internet activity. How are people using the Internet and what sites are they visiting?

Here are a few takeaways that our VNI Usage study revealed:

• Over one-third of the top 50 sites by volume are video sites, the largest percentage of any category. This makes sense since online video is now the top application used on the network.  However, on that list, there is a high degree of diversity among the video sites in the top 50, including video viewed on gaming consoles, Internet TV, short-form user-generated video, commercial video downloads, and video distributed via content delivery networks (CDNs). So it’s not just about Youtube, Megavideo, and Facebook, but sites that are optimized for longer form content too.

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Tags: broadband subscriber, internet traffic, internet usage study, research, visual networking index, vni

As I discussed yesterday, the Cisco VNI Usage Study is able to help translate the theoretical to the real, showcasing actual data sourced from a representative sampling of SP networks worldwide. Because it is primary data, we’re able to parse the information a number of different ways - we can effectively slice and dice it like a Ginsu -- not just at a high level, but down to hourly granularity.  When reconciled with the many time zones this study covers, it provides some great insights into user behavior across multiple geographic regions.

For example:

• “Busy hour” traffic grew at a faster pace than average traffic, growing 41 percent since last year. Peak-hour Internet traffic is 72 percent higher than Internet traffic during an average hour. The ratio of the busy hour to the average hour increased from 1.59 to 1.72, globally.  So, if you are a network planner, it’s not enough just to plan for the basic growth forecast of -- you must account for the daily peaks as well.  Based on our findings, that means planning for an overall capacity nearly ¾ more than the top-line traffic growth estimates in order to prevent massive congestion during daily peak periods.
• Voice and video communications traffic is now six times higher than data communications traffic (email, instant messaging, instant messaging file transfer). Voice and video communications traffic (such as voice over IP [VoIP] and voice and video over instant messaging) has reached 2 percent of all traffic, up from less than 1 percent last year.  With new tools applications becoming available seemingly every day, from Cisco ūmi to the latest from Skype, this will continue to be a space to watch.
• Online video fluctuates more than file sharing traffic. Online video’s volatility (defined as the spread of traffic volume during the course of the day) is 51 percent higher than that of file sharing. The peak video hour is 91 percent higher than the average video hour, while the peak file sharing hour is 64 percent higher than the average file sharing hour.  So while the move to online video is good for providers to showcase the quality of their networks compared to P2P where the role and value they can deliver is limited, it does provide more challenges such as the need to accommodate greater volatility.

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Tags: broadband subscriber, internet traffic, internet usage study, research, visual networking index, vni