Traffic jams aren’t just stressful—they’re expensive. A recent study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research revealed that in 2013 traffic jams cost the U.S. $124 billion. By 2030, they estimate the annual price of traffic in the U.S. and Europe will soar to $293 billion.
Can we turn this around? I think so. The Last Traffic Jam can happen through the Internet of Everything (IoE) and the increased value that comes from connections between people, process, data, and things. It’s in this highly connected world where we’ll see amazing things happen—including the Last Traffic Jam. Read More »
Tags: connected cars, Internet of Everything, internet of things, IoE, IoT, Joseph Bradley, Last Traffic Jam, Smart Connected Cities, Transportation
During my recent trip in Dubai, I had the pleasure of experiencing both the personal and climactic warmth of this extremely modern smart city. Known for building the world’s tallest structure, the Burj Khalifa, Dubai also has emerged as a global business, financial and transportation hub in the Persian Gulf leveraging advanced networked technologies. The pace of accelerated transformation here never ceases to amaze me.
Dubai and the country of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continue to set ambitious goals and then achieve them. Dubai has among the most efficient and busiest airports, longest metro transit systems, advanced road-tolls and highly digitized, smart government services underpinned by advanced broadband and mobile networks.
After meeting with local government and business leaders, I am not surprised about these rapid achievements. Public and private sector leaders here exude energy, enthusiasm and hospitality – and they know how to be decisive with timelines!
I am very excited that while here we were able to confirm with local officials the dates and venue for next year’s Internet of Things World Forum (IoTWF) in Dubai. We will be announcing that information soon. Bringing together IoT and Internet of Everything (IoE) industry leaders IoTWF is the ideal setting for thought leadership around the most significant advance in the history of technology – the connection of people, processes, data and things.
Business, government and other thought leaders I talked with in Dubai all recognized the value that can be captured from connecting the unconnected. Cisco Consulting Services calculates that the UAE can realize $53 billion of economic value over the next decade, and Dubai about $5 billion in the next five years by leveraging IoE-based solutions that digitize everything from buildings and transportation to energy and outdoor lighting.
We are very excited to be joining Dubai and the UAE on this journey of rapid growth and transformation.
This recent trip also extended into Saudi Arabia where leaders also are embracing the Inernet of Everything. For more, please click here.
Tags: Dubai, Internet of Things (IoT), InternetofEverything, Smart Connected Cities, Wim Elfrink
If cities would set aside dedicated lanes on highways or exclusively autonomous sectors in cities, autonomous vehicles could probably become reality as early as 2015 to 2019 on dedicated highway lanes and 2020-2024 in dedicated city sectors. Mixing with and managing the human errors of drivers in conventional vehicles will move the time horizon for fully autonomous vehicles out to 2018 to 2022 on mixed highway lanes and post 2025 in mixed urban driving sectors.
Today, technology is assisting drivers in preventing crashes (e.g., line keeping assist) and is allowing drivers to delegate driving to the “autopilot” under certain circumstances (e.g., adaptive cruise control). It is available in many premium models and also becoming an option in other vehicle categories for all who are willing to pay a premium for a safer ride. Cruise, a startup just announced plans to launch a $10,000 autonomous aftermarket kit for newer Audi cars early 2015. While the call is still out whether upgrading conventional vehicles to become autonomous is a viable strategy, it is a good example for how quickly the technology is evolving.
Technology companies and automakers have fully autonomous vehicles that have driven hundreds of thousands of miles on our roads to date. The time when we can buy and ride in a fully autonomous vehicle will not only depend on the autonomous vehicle technology the industry is maturing at rapid pace, but even more on the driving space we allow such vehicles to drive in. The options are best described in a four quadrant grid: One axis differentiates highway and city driving, the other axis distinguishes exclusive or non-exclusive driving space, meaning whether autonomous vehicles operate on dedicated lanes or city sectors or have to mix and cope with the mistakes of conventional drivers.
An investment in driverless vehicles will likely break even within one to six years, depending on the readiness of the auto insurance industry to adapt rates to the lower risks of autonomous vehicles and on owners’ willingness to share autonomous vehicles.
The fixed ownership cost of the average U.S. passenger vehicle is approximately $8,700 per year:
- $4,300 depreciation, financing
- $1,900 license, parking, warranty, etc.
- $1,500 crash related cost born by the owner
- $1,000 auto insurance
Human error accounts for over 90% of crashes. Assuming autonomous vehicles can eliminate 80% of this risk, the average vehicle owner would save approximately $1,800 (80% x 90% x $2,500) each year.
Conventional vehicles are used less than 5% of their usable time. The convenience of being able to call an autonomous vehicle when it is needed and easily release it for others to use when it is not needed is likely to make autonomous car sharing a much more convenient and cost-efficient mode of transportation for many. Assuming the remaining ownership cost ($6,900) can be shared by 3 users, this would equate to additional savings of $4,600 per user.
For the purpose of this “back of the envelope calculation”, let’s assume that structural design savings and the incremental autonomous cost are a wash. Virtually crash-less autonomous vehicles would require less structural and other safety features (e.g., fenders, airbags) built into vehicles, thus reducing cost and weight.
According to a recent Morgan Stanley study, driverless technology is estimated to initially add about $10,000 to the cost of a vehicle (less than the cost of a battery pack for an average electric vehicle). At the above savings rates, the investment in an autonomous vehicle would pay back in year six at $1,800 crash risk related savings, and in year two at $6,400 savings including the sharing option.
With mass market adoption, the autonomous upgrade cost is expected to go down to about $5,000 per vehicle. At this price point, the investment in an autonomous vehicle would pay back in year three at $1,800 crash risk related savings, and in less than a year at $6,400 savings including the sharing option.
Tags: Autonomous Vehicle, Connected Transportation, connected vehicle, Internet of Cars, Smart Connected Cities