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Updated! – Cisco Mobile Visual Networking Index

Over the past several years, Cisco introduced and has regularly updated and expanded its well-received Visual Networking Index (VNI), which projects IP traffic trends based upon independent analyst forecasts, mobile data usage surveys from operators and other primary research. 

As part of its VNI initiative, Cisco also developed the Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, and the most recent update has just been issued.

The updated forecast includes findings such as:

  • By 2016, global mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 exabytes per month (or 130 exabytes annually). Global mobile data traffic will increase 18X from 2011 -- 2016 (78% CAGR from 2011 -- 2016).  The 130 exabytes is 4.5 times more than all IP traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in 2005 (29 exabytes).
  • Based on Cisco VNI research, global mobile data traffic increased 133% from calendar year-end 2010 to calendar year-end 2011 (CY2011 = 597 petabytes per month or nearly 149 million DVDs per month).
  • In 2011, global mobile data traffic grew 3.4 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.  From 2011 to 2016, global mobile data traffic will grow 3 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.

Other pertinent points include:

  • In spite of uncertain economic conditions in many parts of the world, the demand for mobile services and content has in fact grown in every global region.
  • An increased amount of mobile traffic being offloaded to fixed networks, and the implementation of tiered mobile service pricing and data caps have not had a significant dampening effect on global mobile data traffic growth (the top 1% has been throttled to some degree).
  • In 2011, global mobile data traffic more than doubled (2.3X growth) for the fourth year in a row.

Following are links to relevant documents and information:

We welcome your questions . . . for greater detail, email traffic-inquiries@cisco.com.

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Operators Consider CDN Federations

As consumers continued demand more high-quality content over the Internet, service providers are finding it difficult to increase revenues while containing costs. This is due mainly to two trends: (1) over-the-top (OTT) content providers having outsourced delivery of content to pure-play content delivery network (CDN) companies and (2) traffic growth (with no resulting revenue benefit), increasing network build-out and maintenance costs.

In response, many SPs have begun to utilize CDNs within their networks.  While this approach has helped, results have been limited.   Now, SPs are exploring the potential of CDN federations, which Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) defines as multi-footprint, open CDN capabilities built from resources owned and operated by autonomous members.

IBSG has developed a paper that addresses this issue.  Titled “Content Delivery Network (CDN) Federations: How SPs Can Win the Battle for Content-Hungry Consumers”, it can be found on the Service Provider Thought Leadership section.  At this site, you will find a number of interesting, provocative papers on various subjects relating to the service provider segment.  

This paper provides an overview of the trends and challenges facing SPs today with regard to content delivery, describes a Cisco-led CDN federation pilot and results to date, and lays out the next steps for the pilot in an effort make CDN federations a reality.

Check it out, and the others, as well . . .

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No Slowing for the Holidays

The end-of-year holiday season is traditionally positioned as a chance to slow down and re-charge, but Cisco’s industry-leading products for service providers didn’t get the memo.   Their momentum continued unabated.

Just two days before Christmas, Cisco announced that Dutch service provider KPN has chosen the Cisco CRS-3 multi-chassis carrier routing system, which will be deployed at the heart of KPN’s Internet peering network. The CRS-3 solution will transport all of KPN’s IP traffic to the Internet as part of KPN’s Internet Cluster Environment (ICE).

Not long before, Verizon announced that its IP network, one of the most advanced communications networks in the world, will be upgraded in the first half of 2012 with the Cisco CRS-3 to enable new services and meet growing traffic demands in several key U.S. markets, including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York and Seattle.

As for the ASR 9000 edge routing system, Fibrenoire, a service provider offering Internet and private network services over an optical fiber network in Quebec and Ontario, has completed implementation of an end-to-end Cisco Carrier Ethernet System covering the Quebec City, Montreal and Toronto regions. Fibrenoire’s network is based on the ASR 9000.

Additionally, Next Communications, a Miami-based voice and video provider, has deployed Cisco technology for its IP Next-Generation Network. Integral to this will be deployment of the ASR 9000 and ASR 1000 routers for 100GE port capacity and greater resiliency.

And a couple of other interesting news items:

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European, Russian Service Providers Put Confidence in Cisco Routing Platforms

 

Cable operators.   Mobile operators.  Fixed-line service providers.  MSOs.  It doesn’t make any difference . . . Operators of all types are showing strong confidence in Cisco’s service provider routing platforms.  

The most recent examples are Portuguese cable operator ZON Multimedia and Mobile TeleSystems in Russia. 

ZON Multimedia  has deployed the Cisco CGv6 to handle the transition of its Carrier Ethernet network to IPv6.  ZON has worked closely with Cisco to drive activation of IPv6 features in its access, aggregation and Internet peering networks to implement a transparent, end-to-end IPv6 infrastructure.

ZON’s infrastructure is based on a Cisco IP NGN architecture  using the Cisco ASR 9000 edge routing system as a point of convergence for all CMTS equipments such as the Cisco uBR10000 CMTS (Cable Modem Termination System) loaded with the latest-generation line cards.

Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), the leading telecommunications service provider in Russia and other CIS countries, has deployed the Cisco CRS-3 core routing platform to provide its rapidly growing audience of subscribers with high-quality Internet access despite the growing shortage of IPv4 addresses.

The Cisco carrier-grade Network  Address Translation (NAT) solution deployed by MTS makes it possible to connect new users by offering one address to several subscribers. The capability to extend the system to 80 million address translations will enable MTS to centralize Internet access for several regional mobile and fixed networks. In the initial phase, Cisco NAT has been installed in Siberia.  In future this technology will be implemented in all other regional subsidiaries across the country.

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Another Great Mobile World Congress Ends

Musings, factoids and random thoughts from the just-completed Mobile World Congress 2011 in Barcelona:

  • This may be the only place on the planet in which there are lines outside the men’s rooms, but not at the ladies’ rooms.

But even more seriously, folks . . .

  • MWC continues to enhance its position as a major worldwide technology show and the most important event focusing on the service provider segment
  • The initial tally revealed that >60,000 – a record – attended
  • Verizon, AT&T and Google exhibited for the first time
  • Major topics of interest were monetization and video . . . conveniently, also major topics for Cisco. 
  • IP has never been more relevant at MWC than it was this year
  • Policy was another major subject – also fitting nicely into the Cisco story of intelligence in the network.  Quality of experience got a lot of attention, too
  • And applications enablement – “It’s not just the network that matters,” one analyst said.  “It’s the network PLUS the apps that run on top of it.  At the end of the day, it’s apps that make the real difference.”
  • Cisco enjoyed record interest, holding more than 600 meetings with customers, prospects, partners, analysts and media
  • Cisco’s MOVE (monetization, optimization, Videoscape experience) was well received by analysts
  • One operator told Cisco that voice is now comprises only 1% of its total traffic

Analyst Observations:

  • “The definition of the ‘busy hour’ for the network has expanded to 19 hours, thanks to video.”
  • “There is a lot more positive feeling this year . . . maybe that means the world economy is on the mend.”
  • Several analysts – unsolicited – remarked on Cisco’s ability to define a vision and drive conversations.  “You’ve done a great job of launching visions and architectural plays,”
  • Regarding Cisco’s MOVE announcement, one analyst remarked, “A lot of smaller optimization guys are losing sleep because you’re moving into this space.”
  • “The big factor [to operators] is not necessarily [a vendor’s] technology portfolio.  It’s about services and flexible business relationships.  Especially in emerging markets.”
  • “Monetization is what is keeping operators awake at night.”
  • Regarding the continuing decline of the fixed lines: “At a lot of the operators, the mobile guys are in charge now, not the fixed-line guys.”

In closing . . .

  • MWC will start two weeks later in 2012 – even closer to the CTIA Wireless event than before . . . a coincidence??
  • Next year is the last of MWC‘s current pact with Barcelona.  Munich, Paris and Milan are trying to lure the show from Barcelona, and some people were hearing that Munich had the inside track.  We’ll see.

Wherever the event ends up, let’s do something about those lines at the men’s rooms.  OK?

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