Updated 2015 VNI Mobile Forecast Reveals Potential “Wildcards” for Mobile Devices, Networks and Services
This week, Cisco released its annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2014 – 2019. Among the traditional top-line growth projections that indicate a healthy mobile industry (e.g., more than 5.2 billion global mobile users by 2019 and 10-fold mobile traffic growth over the next five years), there were several interesting trends that could have significant implications for mobile networking in the near future.
Mobile Devices: Laptops make a comeback and phablets start to emerge
While there is an overall growth in the number of mobile devices and connections, there is also a visible shift in the device mix. This year forecast shows a slight slowdown in the growth of tablets as a new device sub-category, phablets (included in our smartphone category), were began to show global adoption. Tablet growth was also affected by the introduction of lightweight laptops, which are quite similar to tablets in form factor but have more enhanced capabilities. Today, tablets are primarily being used as content consumption devices – ideally suited for video viewing in particular. Laptops are still serving as the dominant content creation device, particularly for business users (e.g., presentation, spreadsheet, and document development). While the absolute numbers or volume for smartphones (4.6 billion by 2019), tablets (nearly 300 million by 2019) and laptops (nearly 250 million by 2019) are growing, they are all losing their percentage share of total mobile devices and connections to the fastest growing mobile connection type – M2M (3.2 billion by 2019).
Mobile Networks: Low Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) networks may be optimal for campus-wide IoE applications
This year’s forecast includes M2M nodes connected via Low-Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) networks. These networks are Read More »
Tags: Cisco VNI, global mobile data, M2M, mobile data traffic, mobile devices, mobile to mobile connections, mobile users, mobile vni, visual networking index, vni
For the fifth year, Cisco has released its updated Mobile Visual Networking Index Forecast. This year, we’ve seen dramatic changes in consumer behavior as well as continued explosive growth in mobile data.
Global mobile traffic grew 70% in 2012 and traffic is forecast to rise 13 times between 2012 and 2017, a CAGR of 66%. And in 2012, for the first time, video exceeded 50% of global mobile data.
The key take away from this year’s report, however, is the dramatic shift of mobile traffic offloaded to small cells, primarily Wi-Fi. The chart below (Figure 8 from the mobile VNI report) illustrates how mobile offload increases from 33 percent of total mobile traffic (cellular plus small cell/ Wi-Fi) in 2012, to 46 percent in 2017. This is significantly larger than we forecasted just a year ago when we estimated mobile offload would comprise 11% of total traffic in 2011, growing to 22% in 2016.
Offloading is even more pronounced in the US where it will account for 66% of total mobile traffic in 2017.
While the underlying aggregate global mobile data traffic, cellular plus Wi-Fi, has been revised slightly from last year (2012 total traffic revised to 1.3 exabytes from 1.5 exabytes/month; 2016 traffic revised to 13.8 exabytes from 13.9 exabytes), the shift from cellular to Wi-Fi is occurring faster than we had anticipated. The table below compares the 2012 and 2013 forecasts.
So what’s happening in the mobile landscape that is driving these changes?
First, the mobile VNI report highlights an acceleration of smartphone uptake, and even faster adoption relative to the use of mobile connected laptops. While mobile connected laptops, mostly using dongles, helped drive early consumption of mobile data traffic, consumers are adopting smart phones and tablets faster than earlier forecasted. The shift from mobile connected laptops to smart phones and tablets lowers data consumption as the latter use less data per application (because of smaller screens size and lower processing speeds). Forecasting to 2017, smart phones and tablets are expected to overwhelm laptops and account for about 80% of connected devices in 2017 vs. only 14% for laptops (see graph below).
The second trend is a dramatic uptake of offloading data traffic to small cells, primarily Wi-Fi. Offload is being driven by service providers (both mobile as well as fixed, such as cable) deploying and using Wi-Fi hot spots, as well as a by consumers using WiFi for bandwidth hungry applications such as high-resolution video. Operators are offloading data connections to cope with limited and increasingly congested spectrum for macro cell networks while, at the same time, consumers are using WiFi offload for better indoor performance and to avoid exceeding their mobile data plans.
Working together, these two trends are driving dramatic change in the composition of total wireless data traffic (cellular plus Wi-Fi).
The full Mobile VNI 2013 report highlights this shift as well as other key trends driving growth in mobile IP traffic.
Tags: mobile data traffic, mobile vni, small cells, Smartphones, Tablets, wi-fi
Today, Cisco released its latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Forecast, 2012-2017. This annual study provides lots of interesting data, new growth projections, and our perspectives on key trends that are shaping the future of mobile networks and user behavior. While many ardent forecast aficionados may be eager to delve into the 34-page white paper, we recognize that others simply want us to “net it out.”
So if you’re time-challenged (or just prefer shortcuts), here are just a few figures and findings to help you expeditiously grasp some key takeaways from this year’s report. Read More »
Tags: ceullar data, device proliferation, forecast, global mobile data traffic, mobile traffic, mobile vni, mobility, visual networking index, vni, vni mobile
Cisco just released the 2012 edition of its mobile VNI* report, entitled “Cisco VNI Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016.”
The report’s conclusion: a tsunami of mobile data traffic is headed our way, growing in size and speed through 2016 and likely beyond. Over the next five years, mobile data traffic worldwide will grow 18-fold!
Read More »
Tags: 2011-2016, Cisco, forecast, ip, ip traffic, mobile devices, mobile vni, mobility, visual networking index, vni
Despite the “buzz” around IPv6 right now for many customers it’s not easy to actually test drive an IPv6 connection. When we got the opportunity to sponsor the Wi-Fi customer access at the 2012 v6 World Congress, we jumped at it. It became an opportunity to showcase both the simplicity and effectiveness of the Cisco Carrier Grade IPv6 (CGv6) solution. The CGv6 solution is the industry’s only IPv6 transition solution that has been performance tested and validated by a third party, in our case by EANTC.
Wi-Fi is a topic of particular interest to mobile operators Read More »
Tags: 6rd, Alain Fiocco, ASR1000, cgv6, Cisco, Cloud Intelligent Networks, Dual Stack, EANTC, IPv6, mobile vni, NAT64, Service Provider, SP Wi-Fi, visual networking index