In the midst of tremendous disruption, it is impossible to tell where the global media industry is ultimately heading. But a recent analysis from the Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) explores four possible future scenarios for the media industry. While they do not “predict” the future, the scenarios help build our understanding of possible outcomes — and how various industry players could be affected.
The Shape of Things To Come: Four Scenarios
We explored the ways certain industry developments could swing future outcomes. Combining these drivers into logical groupings (consumer behavior, regulatory requirements, technology, and macroeconomic conditions), we were able to define the following four scenarios, as shown in Figure 1. These scenarios are differentiated by consumer demand, industry structure, and content supply:
- Dark Ages — low demand, consolidated industry, and relatively low content supply
- Survival of the Fittest — low demand, fragmented industry, and high content supply
- Golden Age of Content — high demand, consolidated industry, and controlled content supply
- Wonderland — high demand, fragmented industry, and high content supply
Obviously, each of the scenarios will have different winners and losers. The financial impact and the implications for players across the industry value chain will substantially change by scenario. And in each scenario, distributors and infrastructure providers will need to consider different types of investments. Consequently, each type of player will need to adapt its competitive responses to the future scenario taking shape.
Figure 1. Four Future Scenarios Are Based on Various Groupings of Industry Drivers.
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2013
Following are examples of how two future scenarios could play out: Read More »