Thinking today about mobility – cell phones, smartphones, tablets – and where and when it’ll be changing the rules of retail.
Forrester made a solid case this June that it won’t be as a transaction tool. They – and eMarketer.com – expect M-commerce to be only 7% of total E-commerce revenue by 2016, which means M-com will total only 1% of retail merchandise purchase market.
Gartner made the case this May (echoed by Forrester) that it won’t be as an electronic wallet – at least not until 2015 and beyond. Despite the fact that some 40-50 NFC-enabled smart phones will be shipped this year, the complexities of collaboration between service providers, financial institutions, retailers, and standards bodies is rendering progress slow and tortuous. (To see a preview, rewind to the past decade’s EPC-RFID efforts.)
And yet: The future of the personal communication and computing is increasingly mobile, and that means retailers are looking at a potential opportunity.