These days, I’m often being asked “how much content is going to be on IPv6 out there, June 6th onward”, or “what is the true impact of World IPv6 Launch?” So I scratched my head, and tried to come up with a meaningful way to answer. Consider this my best estimate so far:
Close to 30% of pages viewed on the Internet globally, will be reachable over IPv6 after June 6th 2012.
I based my calculation on two sources:
The list of web sites that have publicly stated their participation in the World IPv6 Launch here
alexa.com traffic stats here with the estimated percentage of pages viewed on these very same sites (averaged over last 3 months).
My estimate was based on analysis I did it for web sites among the Alexa’s TOP 500 participating in the World IPv6 Launch globally (indeed, the vast majority of the content) and estimated the other 2500+ smaller sites to add a very small fraction (the long tail if you will) .
Boom! On June 6th 2012, the IPv6 pages “addressable market” went from 3% (as measured on May 20th) to 27.2%. The reality… it will most likely be a larger number fairly quickly if one consider a lot of smaller sites did not bother registering on the Internet Society list of participating web sites.
What does this mean?
If such a thing as a “global IPv6 user” would exist, they would reach an IPv6 page roughly 30% of the time. Of course this avatar of a global average Internet user does not exist.
Internet users sit at home, in their office, at their neighborhood cafe and are geographically located by definition. Also they have different language, and a typical Russian Internet user is unlikely to look at the same pages or use the exact same sites, as an average American, Brit, Australian, Chinese or Italian.
It is important we find a reliable way of measuring the weight of each web site on a per country basis, so that each country builds their own model to assess “how much IPv6 stuff is out there”.
And make no mistake, I’m NOT predicting that as all of a sudden 30% of the Internet TRAFFIC will be IPv6 overnight.
In order to measure traffic, real users need to access this content and pull up these pages. Remember! as part of World IPv6 launch, a number of network operators have committed to enabled 1% of their subscribers and to make IPv6 a per default service for every new subscriber. They key point to realize is that these IPv6 subscribers are also going to have a destination in IPv6, too.
The IPv6 subscriber growth is going to be steady and it’s already started and accelerated across the globe, as can be seen here. For example we see on June 5th, 2012 that US is at .92% of IPv6 users, China .56%, France 4.7%, Romania 6.3%).
The good news: these users have (on average across the global Internet) 30% of the content available natively across IPv6. This is what the industry in an unprecedented collaboration effort has achieved through World IPv6 Launch. And it’s huge!
IPv6 has reached an important milestone. Governments around the world are implementing mandates for the acquisition and deployment of IPv6 capable products. Industry wide, both enterprise and service providers are also gearing up to provide IPv6 capabilities in their networks. The momentum has been captured in the form of World IPv6 Launch day on June 6th.
Cisco is an industry thought leader in IPv6 and has addressed IPv6 implementation in its products to meet the requirements of government, industry and consumers. The majority of Cisco’s core products have been supporting IPv6 for well over a decade. The acceleration of IPv6 adoption has increased in the last few years, with a corporate wide focus on implementing IPv6 across Cisco’s product lines. Cisco understands and appreciates the leadership government has taken in the adoption of IPv6 and has invested heavily in partnering with various government agencies to enable this vision.
Specifically in the government certifications arena, Cisco has been long involved in the National Institute of Standards and Technologies, or NIST’s, USGv6 program. When the US Government mandated the purchase of IPv6-certified products, Cisco was the first company to embrace this direction. We are working directly with NIST and the Department of Defense, as well as standards bodies to meet the government requirements. Cisco is at the forefront of enabling our government customers to implement IPv6 as is evidenced by the number of products we’ve taken through the USGv6 certification testing. Cisco was the first company to have a router, a switch and a firewall certified through USGv6. Read More »
Enabling commercial, industrial and residential customers to better monitor and manage their energy consumption is a key benefit of a Smart Grid. As part of their grid modernization initiatives, utilities are providing information and incentives to end consumers. These include visibility to real-time energy consumption, as well as variable price and demand response signals that communicate with energy management devices and smart appliances.
This will drive more low power, often battery powered, wireless and wired energy sensors and actuators in the consumer premises. To date, this space is populated with several PHY/MAC specific, non-standardized protocol stacks which do not interoperate. To avoid multiple separate consumer networks a PHY/MAC agnostic solution is needed and this solution is best based upon open IP standards.
The ZigBee Alliance’s ZigBee IP (ZIP) standard is a first definition of an open standards based IPv6 stack for smart objects. The effort has made significant progress to bring IPv6 network protocols over 802.15.4 wireless mesh networks to reality.
With Cisco’s participation in World IPv6 Launch less than a week away, IPv6 is definitely top of mind. Those of us who work in the federal space are also focused on the IPv6 transition deadline that is coming up on September 30th, 2012. The OMB Mandate issued in September of 2010 by Federal Chief Information Officer Vivek Kundra states that the federal government must “Upgrade public/external facing servers and services (e.g. web, email, DNS, ISP services, etc) to operationally use native IPv6 by the end of FY 2012”. According to a Network World article written by Carolyn Duff Marsan, a whopping 99% of Federal Agencies have not yet met the conditions of the mandate.
Why has it been such a challenge for the government to meet this IPv6 transition deadline? And what needs to be done to help make it happen?
One of the problems is that there has been a lack of IPv6 support by government contractors, (including carriers ), content delivery networks and network equipment suppliers. Network equipment must be “IPv6 certified” to enable government customers to meet the deadline.
Cisco has been leading the way with IPv6 certifications, with a majority of products supporting IPv6 for well over a decade. Our USGv6 product list is testament to the fact that we are committed to helping our government customers succeed, but it will take more than just IPv6 certified network equipment to help the government successfully make the transition.
For those of you in the DC area, if you want to get a update on the outcome of World IPv6 Launch, and more information on how the Veterans Administration successfully transitioned to IPv6, please consider attending the Digital Government Institute’s Government IPv6 Day, where all these topics will be covered.
There are a growing number of large-scale IPv6 deployments occurring within enterprise, university, and government networks. For these networks to succeed, it is important that the IPv6 deployments are secure and the quality of service (QoS) must rival the existing IPv4 infrastructure. An important security aspect to consider is the local links (Layer 2). Traditional Layer 2 security differs between IPv4 and IPv6 because instead of using ARP—like IPv4—IPv6 moves the traditional Layer 2 operations to Layer 3 using various ICMP messages
IPv6 introduces a new set of technology link operations paradigms that differ significantly from IPv4. The changes include more end nodes that are permitted on the link (up to 2^64) and increased neighbor cache size on end nodes and the default router, which creates more opportunities for denial of service (DoS) attacks. There are also additional threats to consider in IPv6 including threats with the protocols in use, a couple of which are listed below:
Neighbor Discovery Protocol (NDP) integrates all link operations that determine address assignment, router discovery, and associated tasks.
Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol (DHCP) can have a lesser role in address assignment compared to IPv4.
Finally, non-centralized address assignment in IPv6 can create challenges for controlling address misuse by malicious hosts.