Across the globe, organizations have come together today at the World IPv6 Launch to mark a milestone in unique fashion: Turning on and permanently enabling IPv6 networks for their products and services.
According to the recent CiscoVisual Networking Index (VNI), there will be nearly two-and-a-half networked devices for every person on the planet – roughly 19 billion connected devices by 2016. It’s not only people that are being connected, but also machines. Two billion M2M (machine to machine) connections are expected by 2015. Not surprisingly, global IP traffic has increased eightfold over the past five years and will increase threefold over the next five. To support the proliferation of devices that are transforming businesses and lifestyles, enterprises and service providers are adopting IPv6-enabled networks.
Anyone who has taken the road to IPv6 knows it’s not about flipping a switch. Many things need to be in order beforehand, and it takes expertise and planning to understand the manifold contingencies and then ensure a smooth migration to IPv6 – while also preserving existing IPv4 investments.
As with a rocket launch into space, this is a moment where the herculean efforts of individuals from across the globe have converged to set off a chain reaction of events towards a common goal. The goal in our case is nothing less than retrofitting one of the largest operational systems mankind has ever created with a new foundation to help propel the Internet to the stratospheric levels of growth and innovation the world has come to expect.
Cisco has been preparing for some time and is proud to be among the founding participants of the World IPv6 Launch. Cisco has now permanently enabled IPv6 on www.cisco.com and has IPv6 enabled by default throughout our line of Linksys E-series home routers. We are rolling out IPv6 progressively across our own enterprise network, are leading the way in IPv6 Certifications, and our solutions for IPv6 deployment are in use by service provider and enterprise network operators across the globe. Most importantly, we will be continuing to work closely with our customers, Cisco Services, and development teams to ensure that any problems that may arise are addressed as quickly and efficiently as possible during this critical phase of deployment.
This is a giant leap forward for the Internet, but there is still much work to do in order to release our dependence on IPv4 and allow IPv6 to reach its full potential. While we now have websites representing a majority of Internet traffic advertising their IPv6 reachability to the entire world, the majority of new Internet connected devices shipping with IPv6 built-in, and more Internet Service Providers than ever before enabling IPv6 for their customers as part of normal business, we will have to fly with both protocols at the same time for several years before we get to the point where we can cut loose our first-stage IPv4 engines and soar to new heights without them weighing us down. We have certainly left the platform now though, and are on a clear trajectory toward significant and sustained growth of the Internet based on its widespread adoption of IPv6.
Congratulations to everyone who helped to make this historic launch happen. Because of your vision, dedication, and hard work, IPv6 has left the laboratory and entered the mainstream. The world has its new Internet Protocol.
These days, I’m often being asked “how much content is going to be on IPv6 out there, June 6th onward”, or “what is the true impact of World IPv6 Launch?” So I scratched my head, and tried to come up with a meaningful way to answer. Consider this my best estimate so far:
Close to 30% of pages viewed on the Internet globally, will be reachable over IPv6 after June 6th 2012.
I based my calculation on two sources:
The list of web sites that have publicly stated their participation in the World IPv6 Launch here
alexa.com traffic stats here with the estimated percentage of pages viewed on these very same sites (averaged over last 3 months).
My estimate was based on analysis I did it for web sites among the Alexa’s TOP 500 participating in the World IPv6 Launch globally (indeed, the vast majority of the content) and estimated the other 2500+ smaller sites to add a very small fraction (the long tail if you will) .
Boom! On June 6th 2012, the IPv6 pages “addressable market” went from 3% (as measured on May 20th) to 27.2%. The reality… it will most likely be a larger number fairly quickly if one consider a lot of smaller sites did not bother registering on the Internet Society list of participating web sites.
What does this mean?
If such a thing as a “global IPv6 user” would exist, they would reach an IPv6 page roughly 30% of the time. Of course this avatar of a global average Internet user does not exist.
Internet users sit at home, in their office, at their neighborhood cafe and are geographically located by definition. Also they have different language, and a typical Russian Internet user is unlikely to look at the same pages or use the exact same sites, as an average American, Brit, Australian, Chinese or Italian.
It is important we find a reliable way of measuring the weight of each web site on a per country basis, so that each country builds their own model to assess “how much IPv6 stuff is out there”.
And make no mistake, I’m NOT predicting that as all of a sudden 30% of the Internet TRAFFIC will be IPv6 overnight.
In order to measure traffic, real users need to access this content and pull up these pages. Remember! as part of World IPv6 launch, a number of network operators have committed to enabled 1% of their subscribers and to make IPv6 a per default service for every new subscriber. They key point to realize is that these IPv6 subscribers are also going to have a destination in IPv6, too.
The IPv6 subscriber growth is going to be steady and it’s already started and accelerated across the globe, as can be seen here. For example we see on June 5th, 2012 that US is at .92% of IPv6 users, China .56%, France 4.7%, Romania 6.3%).
The good news: these users have (on average across the global Internet) 30% of the content available natively across IPv6. This is what the industry in an unprecedented collaboration effort has achieved through World IPv6 Launch. And it’s huge!
IPv6 has reached an important milestone. Governments around the world are implementing mandates for the acquisition and deployment of IPv6 capable products. Industry wide, both enterprise and service providers are also gearing up to provide IPv6 capabilities in their networks. The momentum has been captured in the form of World IPv6 Launch day on June 6th.
Cisco is an industry thought leader in IPv6 and has addressed IPv6 implementation in its products to meet the requirements of government, industry and consumers. The majority of Cisco’s core products have been supporting IPv6 for well over a decade. The acceleration of IPv6 adoption has increased in the last few years, with a corporate wide focus on implementing IPv6 across Cisco’s product lines. Cisco understands and appreciates the leadership government has taken in the adoption of IPv6 and has invested heavily in partnering with various government agencies to enable this vision.
Specifically in the government certifications arena, Cisco has been long involved in the National Institute of Standards and Technologies, or NIST’s, USGv6 program. When the US Government mandated the purchase of IPv6-certified products, Cisco was the first company to embrace this direction. We are working directly with NIST and the Department of Defense, as well as standards bodies to meet the government requirements. Cisco is at the forefront of enabling our government customers to implement IPv6 as is evidenced by the number of products we’ve taken through the USGv6 certification testing. Cisco was the first company to have a router, a switch and a firewall certified through USGv6. Read More »
Enabling commercial, industrial and residential customers to better monitor and manage their energy consumption is a key benefit of a Smart Grid. As part of their grid modernization initiatives, utilities are providing information and incentives to end consumers. These include visibility to real-time energy consumption, as well as variable price and demand response signals that communicate with energy management devices and smart appliances.
This will drive more low power, often battery powered, wireless and wired energy sensors and actuators in the consumer premises. To date, this space is populated with several PHY/MAC specific, non-standardized protocol stacks which do not interoperate. To avoid multiple separate consumer networks a PHY/MAC agnostic solution is needed and this solution is best based upon open IP standards.
The ZigBee Alliance’s ZigBee IP (ZIP) standard is a first definition of an open standards based IPv6 stack for smart objects. The effort has made significant progress to bring IPv6 network protocols over 802.15.4 wireless mesh networks to reality.