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monique_morrow.jpgSo, back from my whirlwind travels and, I am now in China. In my discussions with Service Providers, the topic of”disruption” often occurs. Questions around emerging technologies and trends in business dynamics are quite common in these encounters. Whether one speaks about so called”cloud computing”, pervasive computing, impact of social networking on architectures, offline web applications, graphine transitors, open source and so on, the response is multi-faceted. There are considerations for macroeconomic, political, cultural and technological dynamics in scenario analysis, and continued innovation is at the heart of this topic. Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group for Service Providers work very closely with Service Provider customers on scenario analysis relevant to a customer business model. Additionally, Cisco participates in MIT’s Communications Future Communications Program that includes industry participants. Topics like Interprovider Quality of Service, Viral Communications, Value Chain Dynamics are amongst many that the program is addressing. Finally, Cisco Research, is part of the thought leadership team working with universities, and Service Provider customers to collaborate on areas of research pertinent to emerging business, In summary, keeping ahead of the curve, thinking in big picture mode and being cognizant of the external dynamics such as macroeconomics, cultural, political and technological, really do comprise the topic of disruption.

Approaching the Zettabyte Era

This week, at NXTcomm in Las Vegas, we introduced the Cisco Visual Networking Index, an ongoing Cisco initiative designed to provide quantitative and qualitative information regarding trends in IP network demand and usage. Part of a collaborative effort from throughout the global Cisco community, the first component of the index an updated forecast of IP traffic growth, called the Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast for 2007-2012. It is accompanied by a whitepaper, entitled”Approaching the Zettabyte Era” which refers to the new nomenclature required to encompass the full scope of the dramatic growth ahead. Both the forecast and the whitepaper offer detailed analysis on some of the important forecast findings and explores the implications of IP traffic growth. Additional information is in a press release and an associated article in the Wall Street Journal, but highlights from the current Cisco VNI Forecast include:

  • Global IP traffic will increase by a factor of six from 2007 to 2012, reaching 44 exabytes per month in 2012, compared to fewer than 7 exabytes per month in 2007.
  • Total IP traffic for 2012 will amount to more than half a zettabyte (or 522 exabytes).
  • Monthly global IP traffic in December 2012 will be 11 exabytes higher than in December 2011, a single-year increase that will exceed the amount by which traffic increased in the eight years since 2000.

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