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During the course of security research we often acquire new malware samples. We typically first try to determine what we have acquired and if it is a new or otherwise unknown malware sample or if it is a mutation of something that we have already seen. There are several ways in which a sample can be tested, but the simplest way is to compare the MD5 checksum of the malware sample against other known checksums — several services exist where you can look up the hash of a sample, such as Malware Hash Registry by Team Cymru, VirusTotal, and MalwareHash. These services work by analyzing samples against antivirus products from several vendors (often thirty or forty different products). If the sample has previously been analyzed, the results will often tell what percentage of antivirus products detect the sample.  Most of the time this method is sufficient on samples that are more than a few days old; however, on samples that are recent (perhaps discovered within the last twenty-four hours) the effectiveness of this method is marginal, illustrating the highly reactive nature of the industry.

Since antivirus products are often used as a cure for poor user discretion, I thought I would track the effectiveness of antivirus products on new malware samples that we received and test some of the samples a week later to note how the coverage improved. I think the results will show that new malware samples have a window of opportunity where end users are particularly vulnerable to the new malware strains.


Testing Procedure

Every day, new samples were automatically tested against publicly available sources. Most of the samples were very recent. If the sample did not match a known md5 hash then the sample was manually submitted to the services. The best success rate for each sample was tracked (meaning how many different antivirus products detected the malware out of the number of products that were tested).  The results showed that in many cases the coverage for a particular sample is poor at the beginning, creating a window when the new malware strains can be particularly effective. Later, the samples that tested poorly were tested again to see how the detection rate improved after a week. The threshold that I arbitrarily set for poor detection was a 30% effectiveness rate, meaning less than 30% of the antivirus products detected the sample at that time (and 70% failed to detect it).  Similarly, I tracked success percentages in the  30-49% and 50-69% range, and used a 70% threshold as a relatively effective threshold.

Day of Sample Results

Over the course of a few days we collected 152 malware samples that were likely to be relatively new. Below is a breakdown of what was collected:

Of the relatively new malware specimens only 40% (62 of 152 samples) were detected by more than half of the antivirus products, while about 60% were detected by less than half of the products.  A little over one quarter of the samples (28%) were detected by less than 30% of the antivirus products, which is an alarming statistic. Although we know that malware is continually evolving to avoid detection and that detection is continually improving to adapt to these changes, there is still a very distinct window of opportunity where detection is poor and end users should be on guard because the likelihood that an antivirus product will save them from poor decision making is less than 50%. Malware authors make these daily changes to foil antivirus products because it is an effective method.

Results One Week Later

To illustrate this reactionary approach to malware, I followed the 43 samples that were poorly detected (meaning less than 30% detection rate) and re-evaluated them one week later. After one week, 22 of these samples had detection rates above 70% and 35 of the samples were detected by greater than 50% of the antivirus products. The overall detection rate near the day of detection for these samples was 18.6% and that improved to 62.9% one week later.

Antivirus detection improvement over time for samples with less than 30% detect rate on day of sample acquisition

Conclusion

Though the improvement over one week was significant, this example underscores the fact that antivirus products are reactionary and are likely to be only modestly effective when dealing with new samples. This leaves a window of opportunity for miscreants, where end users are particularly vulnerable even if they have antivirus products deployed and updated. Antivirus is not a replacement for end-user discretion and defense in depth.

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10 Comments.


  1. Of course, someone who engages in unsafe surfing will be in danger, for sure. On the other hand, How likely is it that an average user will be infected by one of these new malwares before his AV has a signature? Virus signatures used to be updated weekly. Since then, the AV companies have been getting signatures out a couple of times a week, then daily, now some of them do hourly updates. Again, I ask, is this necessary? How likely is he/she going to get that brand, spanking new malware if their AV isn’t updated hourly?Are you crying wolf?Regards,

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  2. I would not consider it crying wolf. There is a window of opportunity. It depends on the behavior of the end user. Some users, for whatever reason are more susceptible. Does hourly AV update effectiveness reduce a 72 hour exposure window to some time between 48 and 72 hours ? If the manpower and computing power required to reduce the exposure window a few hours is minimal than why not do it. If the tactic is not effective why do miscreants continue to use their resources on it ?

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  3. John, can you drop me a line at the email in this comment about your piece? I’m writing something for Pop Sci.

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  4. How many AV programs did you use?

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  5. The different services use different AV products and different numbers as well. The results, I took were from the best case of each sample. The VirusTotal service uses 40 or more AV engines. The other services use around 30 different AV engines

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  6. Virus signatures used to be updated weekly. Since then, the AV companies have been getting signatures out a couple of times a week, then daily, now some of them do hourly updates. Again, I ask, is this necessary?

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  7. Malware mutates constantly. Hourly updates minimize the exposure time. Will someone be compromised if they aren’t updated hourly ? I think it is important to not that even with hourly updates, they could still be compromised give nthe right set of circumstances.

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  8. For those who think that this may be crying wolf, or that safe-surfing”" will spare them of most of these newer variants of malware, there is one other trend in the malware world that they should be aware of. It’s the fact that cyber-criminals are more and more using legitimate and popular sites, sometimes even propelled up in the Google search optimization engine, to distribute their malware. You don’t need to clck onanything on the page to get infected, chances are that it’ll happen without even noticing it if your browser is vulnerable to the attack.With this being said, I’d tend to agree with the author of this article that anything that can reduce the window of exposure is a good thing under the circumstances, and is by no way making a mountain out of a molehill, or crying wolf for that matter.My 2 cents.”

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