Updated 2015 VNI Mobile Forecast Reveals Potential “Wildcards” for Mobile Devices, Networks and Services
This week, Cisco released its annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast, 2014 – 2019. Among the traditional top-line growth projections that indicate a healthy mobile industry (e.g., more than 5.2 billion global mobile users by 2019 and 10-fold mobile traffic growth over the next five years), there were several interesting trends that could have significant implications for mobile networking in the near future.
Mobile Devices: Laptops make a comeback and phablets start to emerge
While there is an overall growth in the number of mobile devices and connections, there is also a visible shift in the device mix. This year forecast shows a slight slowdown in the growth of tablets as a new device sub-category, phablets (included in our smartphone category), were began to show global adoption. Tablet growth was also affected by the introduction of lightweight laptops, which are quite similar to tablets in form factor but have more enhanced capabilities. Today, tablets are primarily being used as content consumption devices – ideally suited for video viewing in particular. Laptops are still serving as the dominant content creation device, particularly for business users (e.g., presentation, spreadsheet, and document development). While the absolute numbers or volume for smartphones (4.6 billion by 2019), tablets (nearly 300 million by 2019) and laptops (nearly 250 million by 2019) are growing, they are all losing their percentage share of total mobile devices and connections to the fastest growing mobile connection type – M2M (3.2 billion by 2019).
Mobile Networks: Low Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) networks may be optimal for campus-wide IoE applications
This year’s forecast includes M2M nodes connected via Low-Power, Wide-Area (LPWA) networks. These networks are Read More »
Tags: Cisco VNI, global mobile data, M2M, mobile data traffic, mobile devices, mobile to mobile connections, mobile users, mobile vni, visual networking index, vni
Are you Ready?
Cisco first asked this question in a 1999 advertising campaign when the incredible potential of the Internet was just beginning to become apparent.
Our ‘Are You Ready?’ ad campaign carried a simple message to the world’s businesses, telecommunications providers, and public institutions: get your Internet infrastructure ready now or risk being left behind in a world that is rapidly moving towards online-commerce, supply chain digitization and connected workforces.
Some moved quickly, but others failed to heed the warning. 45% of the companies on the Fortune 500 list in 1999 were no longer on the 2014 list, with dozens making way for nimbler more web-savvy competitors..
Today, as Cisco publishes its latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) study, our biannual global study of fixed and mobile data traffic, I see another ‘Are You Ready?’ moment in the making.
It is two years since Cisco quantified the astonishing $19 trillion economic potential of the Internet of Everything at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Today, just twenty four months later, we’re seeing an acceleration of the impact of the Internet of Everything on global networks. Here are some of the highlights of the VNI study:
• There will be eight billion connected mobile devices by 2019
• 3.2 billion of those – 40 percent of mobile Internet – will be machine-to-machine connections, such as wearable devices
• Cisco forecasts an 18-fold growth in mobile traffic from wearable devices (most of it channeled through smartphones) from 2015 to 2019.
• Wearable device traffic growth will be fueled by a five-fold growth in the number of connected devices, reaching 578 million by 2019, up from 109 million in 2014.
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Tags: Cisco Mobile VNI, IoE, rob lloyd, Wearables
I love new projects and new initiatives. That’s why I am so interested in the DevNet Zone at Cisco Live! in Milan. Because it’s all about developing new solutions.
Left to Right: Wim Elfrink, Alberto Sarullo, Loris Bottello, Andrea Germinario, Andrea Desiato, Rick, Tywoniak
This week, we held a hackathon where 100 developers, on 20 teams, competed for 24 hours to create the best new apps on Cisco platforms. I was honored to present US$5,000 to four winners who created an app called “Pillbox.”
This team addressed a real-world issue: how to keep track of whether you have taken your medications. The Pillbox app leveraged a combination of our Enterprise IOT infrastructure (EIoT), Data in Motion data monitoring and filtering software, and the Jabber APIs.
After the doctor prescribes your medication and enters it into a cloud system, Jabber alerts you when it’s time to take your medicine. Then a sensor in the pillbox connected to Cisco’s EIoT system records that the medicine has been taken and keeps track of each dosage and when taken. If the sensor isn’t triggered within a certain time after the medicine is supposed to be taken, the app alerts your doctor via Jabber. Or the patient can contact the doctor directly through Jabber. The team built this app in under 24 hours!
There were many, many other deserving applications that came out of the hackathon—such as a fire detection system and an air quality management system. I wish they could all win!
Of course, most applications will take more time and investment to build. Another way we are helping developers create new projects and initiatives is with our growing network of Innovation Centers. From Tokyo to Toronto, we are making Cisco engineers, academic researchers and experts in a variety of vertical industries available to developers working on our platforms, so they can build the best apps in the shortest possible amount of time.
It’s an exciting time to work with Cisco!
During my recent business trip throughout Germany, the Hamburg Senate adopted a visionary “Digital City Strategy” to optimize value from the new era of massive digitalization. As part of the initiative, a Digital City Control Center will be established in the Senate Chancellery to analyze data and improve citywide processes and projects with strategic partners.
“If Hamburg wants to shape this policy, now is the time to act,” said Hamburg’s First Mayor Olaf Scholz. And at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also asserted that “a digital offensive would create high-quality jobs and would help boost EU employment.”
Digitalization efforts are gaining momentum throughout Germany, fueled in part by the country’s Industry 4.0 initiative, and Hamburg in particular should be commended for its enterprising actions. Officials and industry leaders here recognize that a citywdide information infrastrcuture is essential to extracting full value from digitalization and the Internet of Everything — the connection of data with people, processes and things
At the bustling Port of Hamburg, Europe’s second largest and only growing port, CEO Jens Meier attributes recent record results and efficiency gains to technology. While here, Jens invited me aboard the, “CSCL Globe (China Shipping Container Line) ”, the world’s largest container ship. Longer than four soccer fields, the ship can transport 19,100 (TEU) containers. Hamburg was the mega ship’s first European port-of-call on its maiden voyage.
IoEis playing a significant role in reducing operating costs, synchronizing the lifting and lowering of bridges with road and water traffic, improving collaboration among employees and citizens in adjacent Hamburg. Without these advances, the port would not have been able to accommodate and attract such a mammoth vessel or prepare for a doubling of container volume over the next several years, said Jens.
The port and city of Hamburg are transforming into a powerful Seatropolis. The digital interconnectedness of port and city is a prime example of the “network multiplier effect”: The more inter-connections among nodes the greater the value of IoE. We’re proud at Cisco to be partnering with the Port of Hamburg, and we’re confident our advances will make a big splash when it showcases IoE projects as Hamburg hosts the World Ports Conference in June.
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Tags: Apartimentinum, Dr. Saxe, Hamburg, Hamburg Rotary Club, Internet of Everything, Jens Meier, MLove Salon, Port of Hamburg, Sen. Frank Horch, Wim Elfrink
Walking through the DevNet Zone at Cisco Live in Milan, I was struck by two things. First, we have an amazing array of platforms for developers who want to write applications that take advantage of the network – platforms that enable software-defined networking, collaboration, security, connected mobile experiences, data analysis at the edge, analysis of data in motion and more.
And second, our team has really focused on getting developers up and running with hands-on experiences as fast as possible. The DevNet Portal is a one-stop-shop for the resources developers need most. It speeds their development time by stepping them through their choice of learning tools, developer kits, APIs, forums to engage with Cisco engineers and lots of supporting documentation.
Then, a sandbox of developer tools provides access to the latest Cisco software and hardware platforms online. Developers can test in a real-world environment and quickly know that their code is verified to work with Cisco production equipment.
In fact, our APIC-EM controller sandbox set a Cisco record for the most users in its first two months of availability. Even now, the only way to get the latest early-field trial (EFT) version of APIC-EM is through either the EFT program or DevNet Sandbox.
The DevNet Zone and the DevNet Portal are innovative catalysts, helping the developer community to create new apps and automation functions on the network-as-a-platform. The personal and virtual interactions are inspiring.
Developers play a pivotal role in the progress of the Internet of Everything. Here this week in Milan, developers can see it, learn it, build it and launch it. I was amazed.
Tags: #DevNet, Cisco, Cisco Live Milan, Developer Community, developers, DevNet Zone, Internet of Everything, Software Developers, Wim Elfrink