The Cisco Visual Networking (VNI) Forecast 2009-2014
The number of statistics that can be gleaned from our annual Visual Networking Index (VNI), released today, is almost as heavy as the Internet it describes.
A quadrupling of IP traffic by 2014 is a lot to absorb — so in this blog, we plucked out the projections that seem especially relevant for video service providers:
- It’s all about video: By 2014, the sum of all forms of video will continue to exceed 91% of global consumer Internet traffic.
- If the world’s online video viewers were all standing in one place, they’d constitute the world’s third-largest country. More than 1 billion people in the world will consume video online by the end of 2010 – meaning that online video partakers are roughly equivalent to the third largest country in the world (behind China and India).
- Peer to Peer (P2P) isn’t the largest traffic type anymore. Internet video traffic will surpass peer-to-peer traffic by the end of the year – marking the first time that P2P is not the largest Internet traffic type.
- Face-to-face communications via the Internet will grow sevenfold. Watch for video communications traffic (video via IM, video calling) to increase seven times over between 2009 and 2014, as face-to-face talking becomes an expected communications component — on multiple screens.
- VoD is on a tear. Video on Demand traffic will double every 2.5 years, through 2014, making it a major contributor to the growth of video, generating 11 exabytes per month by 2014.
- Bandwidth-hungry HD and 3D video is headed onto the IP pipes. The bandwidth-devouring characteristics of high-definition video is well known to video service providers. That traffic will transition onto IP plant as well- and the emergence of 3D streams will only impact it more. Specifically: HD and 3D video combined will comprise 46% of total consumer Internet video traffic by 2014; 3D alone is forecast to account for 4% of all Internet video traffic.
- It’s not just for consumers anymore – business video seeing a rise too. Business video conferencing will grow 10 fold over the forecast period, a rate that is almost three times faster than overall business traffic.
The bottom line? Video, more and more, is becoming synonymous with IP and a part of nearly every major networking experience.
If you’re a video service provider delivering video in IP, or preparing to transition from MPEG to IP, you’re already well-versed in what’s happening with the traffic moving over your fixed or mobile infrastructure. We hope our forecast helps you take the right next steps for your network, business and customers. You can learn more at http://www.cisco.com/go/vni. Please feel free to send inquiries regarding the forecast to traffic-inquiries. For questions regarding online tools and free applications, please write to vni_pulse.