2006 U.S. Elections…and, of course, 2008!
I’m in DC now having just finished up our internal government affairs team worldwide offsite (which when I started in government affairs at Cisco, by the way, could have been done at the water cooler). One of our external speakers was from the noted political poop-sheet The Hotline, published by National Journal. He spent his time talking about the ‘06 election prospects as well as what he saw shaping up in ‘08. I will attempt to paraphrase some of his thoughts as well as insert some of my own expert analysis.
He (I will err on the side of caution and not name him as I did not tell him I would blog on this, although I’m sure he didn’t share anything that he wouldn’t have said to any external audience) currently sees the Democrats having a good chance of winning the Senate with possible pick-ups in OH, PA, MT, RI and MO. He said the tougher ones that could be possible pick-ups for the Democrats include VA, TN, and AZ.
He said that the House is much tougher for the Democrats on a race-by-race basis, but that if you looked at all the Congressional districts where John Kerry won the presidential vote in ‘04 that the Dems would have a one seat advantage in the House…so, it is possible for Dems to take the House, but tough.
All of this, of couse, is conjecture and a long way off politically, but the current mood of the public is very down on the Congress and the White House (all controlled by Republicans) and the question of the hour is “will the backlash be against those in power (a la ‘94), or will the mood translate into apathy?” The other driving factors in the national malaise, if you will, are Iraq, gas prices and, always, JOBS as well as the quickly approaching hurricane season being the x factor.
Quick aside and an interesting one…there has been much debate on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld staying or going with many retired Generals saying he should go and the White House strongly supporting him…the conjecture in the room is that he would be gone after the elections because whichever party controlled the Senate would have an Armed Services Committee Chairman who is not a fan of Mr. Rumsfeld…Senator Levin (MI) if the D’s, Sen. McCain (AZ) if the R’s. Also, any new Secretary would have to be confirmed by the Senate and prior to the ‘06 elections would not be a good time for the R’s on rehashing Iraq war planning…Interesting points…
Which leads us to ‘08. Senator McCain and Senator Clinton are the prohibitive favorites for their respective party nominations and the questions seem to have turned to 1) who will be the alternative to them if they make a misstep; and 2) who will their running mates be?
D alternatives: the top two seem to be lining up as Mark Warner from Virginia and John Edwards from North Carolina. Others include: Governors Bill Richardson (NM) and Tom Vilsack (IA) and Senators Evan Bayh (IN), John Kerry (MA) and Joe Biden (DE) (have to put Biden in there as he is my former boss and credible on national security and many other critical issues). Senator Russ Feingold (WI) and former Sen/VP/Dem Nominee Al Gore should be put in the mix as well.
R alternatives: the top two seem to be Senator George Allen (VA) and Governor Mitt Romney (MA). Other possibles could be former NYC Mayor Rudy Guiliani (doubtful he runs, imho) and Senators Chuck Hagel (NE), Sam Brownback (KS) and Bill Frist (TN).
The polling for Senators Clinton and McCain are off the charts, but 2008 is a LONG way off so anything could happen. However, if they do get the nods, who will they pick as running mates? The conventional wisdom is PICK A VP NOMINEE WHO CAN WIN HIS/HER HOME STATE that you might not otherwise win…so, for Clinton that looks good for Vilsack and Bayh. For McCain, that looks good for Romney. Other intriguing potential VP picks include Senator Barack Obama (IL) for the D’s and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for the R’s. If Clinton is the nominee, the R’s may very well look to a woman VP nominee to blunt some of women vote…who that could/would be is anybody’s guess, although I think we can count out Harriet Myers, unless, of course, she is put in charge of finding the VP candidate. : )
One of the most interesting persons not mentioned above who I certainly look forward to hearing on the campaign trail and potentially seeing in the White House is former inhabitant and potential First Gentleman: William Jefferson Clinton.
So, there you have a lot of conjecture, guesswork, opinion, stargazing and name-dropping all wrapped into one. When all is said and done, there will be a peaceful transition and somehow the planets will continue revolve around the sun…and that is a good thing.
Posted by John Earnhardt at 09:25AM PST
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