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Cisco ANZ Mobile VNI Forecast: Australia is a leader in 4G adoption

The Cisco Global Mobile Visual Networking Index released earlier this month and at a media event, yesterday, Cisco’s Dr. Robert Pepper, Vice President of Global Technology Policy, delivered the Australia and New Zealand specific findings. The Cisco Global Mobile VNI research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth which measures consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

The research paints an interesting picture of what 2018 is expected to look like from a global mobile data traffic perspective. More mobile users (4.1 billion in 2013 up to 4.9 billion in 2018), more mobile connections (7 billion in 2013 up to 10.2 billion in 2018) and faster average speeds (1.4 Mbps up to 2.5 Mbps in 2018) characterise the Visual Networking Index forecast.

The findings were interesting with Australia and New Zealand mirroring the global findings in some respects but bucking the trend in others.

In Mobile Data Traffic Growth/Top-Line, both Australia (41% Compounding Annual Growth Rate) and New Zealand’s (51% CAGR) were in line with other developed countries such as Japan (55% CAGR), Western Europe (50% CAGR) and the US (51% CAGR).  This is in contrast to the global mobile data traffic which includes emerging countries such as Brazil, India and China where global mobile traffic growth is expected to increase 61% CAGR global in the next five years.

Machine to Machine (M2M) communications will also grow significantly in both Australia (39% CAGR) and New Zealand (35% CAGR). M2M represents a large part of what Cisco dubs the Internet of Everything, that is connecting the unconnected and we are excited about the opportunity that this represents for the market ‘down under’.

A subset of M2M is wearables. While we don’t yet provide breakdowns of wearables by country, the forecast is that globally connected wearables will grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018. Remember that as this is the “Global Mobile VNI” report, these M2M connections are only those that go through a mobile operator.   With the substantiation that this M2M data provides, we believe that 2014 is the tipping point for Internet of Everything.

One of the most interesting findings of the study is that Australia, along with the US, Japan and Korea, is leading the world in terms of the transition to 4G from 3G. Globally, 3G is expected to be the dominant network type in 2018 with 59% of connections being 3G. In 2018, 4G is tipped to be the most common network connection with 51% of connections being 4G technology.

To see Dr. Robert Pepper’s presentation on the Australian and New Zealand findings click here.

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